Marist vs Lehigh

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-25 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-25 03:58 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Lehigh / Spread / +4.5 at -110 / 58% / Lehigh’s defensive efficiency and Marist’s injury-depleted roster create value on the underdog, with simulation showing strong cover probability despite home advantage]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 140.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams’ recent low-tempo games and Marist’s limited scoring options due to injuries point to a controlled, under-paced matchup below the line]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Marist / Moneyline / -190 / 62% / Home court edge and superior adjusted offensive rating give Marist the outright win edge, even with key absences]

Marist vs Lehigh on 2025-11-25

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

Public Bets

[Marist 65% / Lehigh 35%]

Money Distribution

[Marist 75% / Lehigh 25%]

Market Alignment

[Aligned]

Line Movement

Line opened at Marist -5.5 and moved to -4.5 with balanced action, indicating some sharp interest in Lehigh amid injury news.

Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+2.5% on Lehigh +4.5 / Reverse line movement against public heavy on favorite, combined with Marist’s four key players out, supports positive EV on the dog despite consensus money]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Marist | 62% |
| Win % for Lehigh | 38% |
| Spread Cover % for Marist | 42% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 45% / Under: 55% |
| Average Total Points | 138 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-15, 12] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Javon Cooley / Over Points / 16.5 at -115 / 72% / Cooley’s high usage rate (28%) and Lehigh’s weak perimeter defense (allowing 35% from three) favor him exceeding in a depleted Marist lineup
Player Prop #2: Keith Higgins Jr. / Over Points / 14.5 at -110 / 68% / Higgins’ recent form (15.2 PPG last three) exploits Marist’s thin frontcourt due to injuries, with favorable rebounding matchup
Player Prop #3: Lehigh Team Total / Over / 68.5 at -105 / 65% / Lehigh’s efficient offense against Marist’s adjusted D rating (102) and home team’s scoring dip from absences supports team over

Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Marist, aligning with money distribution, but injuries to four key Marist players create divergence from sharp action, justifying a fade on the favorite. The matchup leans low-scoring given both teams’ sub-70 tempo averages and defensive rebounding strengths, reducing fast-break opportunities. Overall, value exists on Lehigh covering as the public overvalues Marist’s home edge without full roster.

Recommended Play

[Fade the public on Lehigh +4.5] — Mathematical probability favors the underdog cover with +EV from injury impacts and simulation alignment.

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