Memphis Grizzlies vs Indiana Pacers

League: NBA | Date: 2025-10-25 08:10 PM EDT | Last Updated: 2025-10-25 05:06 PM EDT

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [Memphis Grizzlies / Spread -2.5 / -110 / 59% / Simulation shows 58.9% cover rate with Pacers’ key point guards out, creating defensive edge for Grizzlies; line stable despite public lean.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total 240.5 / -110 / 73% / Both teams’ defensive ratings and Pacers’ depleted backcourt limit pace and scoring; average simulated total 230 points aligns with under trends in similar injury spots.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Memphis Grizzlies / Moneyline -135 / 65% / 64.6% win probability exceeds implied 57.4%, boosted by home advantage and Pacers’ turnover-prone offense without Haliburton.]

🏈 Matchup: Indiana Pacers vs Memphis Grizzlies on 2025-10-25

Game Times

• ET: 8:00 PM
• CT: 7:00 PM
• MT: 6:00 PM
• PT: 5:00 PM
• AKT: 4:00 PM
• HST: 2:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

Pacers 52% / Grizzlies 48%

💰 Money Distribution

Pacers 45% / Grizzlies 55%

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Opened at Grizzlies -1.5, moved to -2.5 amid sharp action on home team despite mild public interest in Pacers’ name value.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Grizzlies spread (58.9% sim cover vs. 52.4% implied); +4.8% EV on under (73% probability vs. even money); injuries to Pacers’ guards (Haliburton, Nembhard, McConnell out) inflate Grizzlies’ defensive efficiency by est. 5 points.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Memphis Grizzlies | 64.6% |
| Win % for Indiana Pacers | 35.4% |
| Spread Cover % for Memphis Grizzlies (-2.5) | 58.9% |
| Over/Under Probability (240.5) | Over: 27.0% / Under: 73.0% |
| Average Total Points | 230.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (Grizz – Pacers) | [-27.1, 39.5] |

Top 3 Player Props

• Player Prop #1: Ja Morant / Over 24.5 Points / -115 / 72% / Morant’s usage spikes to 32% without Pacers’ top defenders; averaged 28.4 vs. similar weak backcourts, true-shooting 58% in fast pace; Grizzlies’ offensive rating jumps 8 points with him on floor.
• Player Prop #2: Pascal Siakam / Under 20.5 Points / -110 / 68% / Siakam’s efficiency drops to 51% TS vs. Grizzlies’ frontcourt (def rating 108 allowed); injuries limit touches, recent form under in 4/5 road games with reduced assists (4.2 avg).
• Player Prop #3: Jaren Jackson Jr. / Over 10.5 Rebounds / -105 / 70% / Jackson grabs 12.1 RPG vs. Pacers’ rebounding rate (49% opp); Pacers’ interior weakened by injuries, his defensive rebound % at 28% in home matchups supports over in 7/10 recent games.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public slightly favors Pacers due to residual hype from last season’s run, but money and line movement point to sharp action on Grizzlies amid Pacers’ severe backcourt injuries, creating a clear divergence. Following the sharp side aligns with math, as simulation and metrics show Grizzlies’ home defensive rating (110) stifling Pacers’ depleted offense (est. 108 off rating). Overall game outlook leans low-scoring, with both teams’ turnover rates (Pacers 14.5%, Grizzlies 13.2%) and slower projected pace (98) favoring under, especially without Haliburton to push tempo.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the sharp money on Memphis Grizzlies — positive EV on spread and moneyline driven by injury mismatch and home edge.

Highlights unavailable for future events.