Memphis Grizzlies vs Phoenix Suns

League: NBA | Date: 2026-01-07 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-07 06:18 PM EST

Memphis Grizzlies vs Phoenix Suns on 2026-01-07

💰 Best Bet #1 Phoenix Suns / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 58% / Suns favored due to multiple Grizzlies injuries including questionable status for Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr., boosting Phoenix’s edge in efficiency and defense against a depleted Memphis roster.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 232.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams show defensive strengths in recent games with Suns allowing low opponent PPG and Grizzlies struggling offensively amid injuries, aligning with simulation’s slight under lean and current season pace metrics.

💰 Best Bet #3 Phoenix Suns / Moneyline / -141 / 58% / Phoenix’s superior net rating and form against injury-hit opponents give them a clear win probability advantage, supported by line consensus across sportsbooks.

Game Times

ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM

Public Bets

Suns 65% / Grizzlies 35%

💸 Money Distribution

Suns 72% / Grizzlies 28%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Suns -3.5 and moved to -4.5 with sharp money on Phoenix despite public lean, indicating professional action on the favorite amid Grizzlies injury news.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Suns spread; implied odds undervalue Phoenix’s win probability given current season defensive ratings and Memphis’s key absences, creating value against consensus lines.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Memphis Grizzlies | 42.0% |
| Win % for Phoenix Suns | 58.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Memphis Grizzlies (+4.5) | 48.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 49.0% / Under: 51.0% |
| Average Total Points | 225.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10.2, 18.5] |

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Suns, aligning with sharp money as evidenced by the line movement toward Phoenix despite balanced public percentages, making a follow strategy optimal for the spread and moneyline. The math supports this with positive EV on Suns bets, driven by Grizzlies’ injury impacts on their offensive rating. Overall game scoring outlook points to a lower total, as both defenses rank highly in opponent efficiency during the current season, with injuries further suppressing Memphis’s pace.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Phoenix Suns — strong convergence of metrics, injuries, and market action favors their outright and cover probability.

Highlights unavailable.