Memphis Tigers vs Tulane Green Wave

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-07 09:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-07 05:22 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Memphis Tigers / Spread / -3.5 at -110 / 55% / Memphis holds strong home-field advantage with superior offensive efficiency and recent form against similar opponents, covering in 6 of last 8 home games.
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 53.5 at -115 / 52% / Both teams rank top-40 in yards per play offensively, with Memphis allowing high-scoring outputs at home and Tulane’s pace pushing totals over in 70% of road matchups.
💰 Best Bet #3 Memphis Tigers / Moneyline / -170 / 62% / Tigers’ undefeated home record and edge in success rate metrics provide clear value despite public favoritism.

Memphis Tigers vs Tulane Green Wave on 2025-11-07

Game Times

ET: 9:00 PM
CT: 8:00 PM
MT: 7:00 PM
PT: 6:00 PM
AKT: 5:00 PM
HST: 3:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

Memphis Tigers 68% / Tulane Green Wave 32%

💰 Money Distribution

Memphis Tigers 55% / Tulane Green Wave 45%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Stable at -3.5 for Memphis; opened at -3 and held firm despite moderate public action on the favorite, indicating sharp balance.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3% on Memphis spread; implied probability undervalues Tigers’ home dominance and defensive havoc rate against Tulane’s run-heavy scheme.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Memphis Tigers | 62.0% |
| Win % for Tulane Green Wave | 38.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Memphis Tigers | 55.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52.0% / Under: 48.0% |
| Average Total Points | 54.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10.0, 20.0] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward Memphis, aligning with money distribution and sharp action, making following the favorite optimal rather than fading. Both offenses excel in explosive plays, suggesting a moderate-to-high scoring affair around the total line. Contextual factors like potential QB uncertainty for Memphis slightly temper the spread edge but do not erase the home advantage.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Memphis Tigers — superior metrics and consensus support the highest probability outcome.

Highlights unavailable for future events.