Memphis vs Southern Illinois

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-26 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-26 01:56 PM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 Memphis / Spread / -11 at -110 / 58% / Memphis leverages home-court advantage at FedEx Forum against a Southern Illinois team struggling on the road, with recent form showing Memphis covering in 3 of 5 home games despite 1-4 record, while SIU allows 78 points per game away.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 148.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams play at a moderate tempo (Memphis 72 possessions, SIU 70), with defensive efficiencies limiting opponents to under 75 points recently; matchup projects low-scoring affair due to SIU’s poor 3P% defense and Memphis’s turnover-forcing style.

💰 Best Bet #3 Memphis / Moneyline / -700 / 75% / Strong home win probability backed by superior adjusted offensive rating (110 vs. SIU’s 102), minimal injuries, and historical dominance over mid-majors like Salukis.

Memphis vs Southern Illinois on 2025-11-26

Game Times

ET: 08:00 PM
CT: 07:00 PM
MT: 06:00 PM
PT: 05:00 PM
AKT: 04:00 PM
HST: 02:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

Memphis 68% / Southern Illinois 32%

💰 Money Distribution

Memphis 76% / Southern Illinois 24%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Opened at Memphis -10, moved to -11 with sharp action on favorite despite public lean; total steady at 148.5.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Memphis -11, driven by reverse line movement indicating pro money and Memphis’s home efficiency edge over SIU’s road ATS record (1-4).

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|———————————|——————————–|
| Win % for Memphis | 75.0% |
| Win % for Southern Illinois | 25.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Memphis | 55.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52.0% / Under: 48.0% |
| Average Total Points | 150.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [5.0, 25.0] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Jaykwon Walton (Memphis) / Over Points / 18.5 at -115 / 72% / Walton averages 19.2 PPG in home games this season with high usage (28%) against SIU’s weak perimeter defense allowing 38% from three; recent form includes 22+ in 4 of 5 starts.

Player Prop #2: Xavier Johnson (Southern Illinois) / Under Points / 14.5 at -110 / 68% / Johnson held to 12.8 PPG on road vs. similar defenses, with Memphis forcing 15 turnovers per game; SIU’s low possession share for him (22%) limits upside in controlled matchup.

Player Prop #3: Nae’Qwan Tomlin (Memphis) / Over Rebounds / 7.5 at -120 / 70% / Tomlin grabs 8.1 RPG at home, exploiting SIU’s 35% defensive rebound rate; no key frontcourt injuries boost his opportunities against smaller Salukis lineup.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Memphis, aligning with sharp money as evidenced by line movement to -11, making a follow strategy optimal with positive EV on the spread. Both teams’ defensive metrics (Memphis 105 adj D, SIU 108) suggest a controlled pace, projecting under the total despite average offensive outputs. Overall game outlook leans low-scoring, with Memphis’s home edge minimizing upset risk.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Memphis — superior metrics and market consensus point to a comfortable home win.

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