Miami Dolphins vs New Orleans Saints

League: NFL | Date: 2025-11-30 01:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-30 09:48 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Dolphins / Spread / -5.5 at -110 / 58% / Dolphins riding recent wins including ties against Bears and Lions, Saints without key RB Alvin Kamara crippling their offense to low PPG, simulation shows 56% cover rate.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 42.5 at -110 / 58% / Combined recent games average under line with Saints losses low-scoring (13,17,19 pts), Dolphins defensive standouts, sim avg total 40.2 points.
💰 Best Bet #3 Dolphins / Moneyline / -225 / 68% / 66% win probability in sim, home-field edge vs struggling 2-9 Saints, public and line movement confirm value.

🏈 Miami Dolphins vs New Orleans Saints on 2025-11-30

Game Times
ET: 1:00 PM
CT: 12:00 PM
MT: 11:00 AM
PT: 10:00 AM
AKT: 9:00 AM
HST: 8:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
Dolphins 97% / Saints 3%

💰 Money Distribution
Dolphins 88% / Saints 12%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened Dolphins -4.5, moved to -5.5 amid heavy public action on favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.4% on Dolphins -5.5; simulation cover exceeds implied probability, supported by Saints’ RB absence and Dolphins’ form.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Miami Dolphins | 66% |
| Win % for New Orleans Saints | 34% |
| Spread Cover % for Miami Dolphins (-5.5) | 56% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 44% / Under: 56% |
| Average Total Points | 40.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-3.2, +12.8] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Tua Tagovailoa / Over 265.5 Passing Yards / 265.5 at -110 / 72% / Saints vulnerable to QBs (8th most passing TDs allowed), Tua thrives at home with Waddle/Achane drawing coverage.
Player Prop #2: De’Von Achane / Over 55.5 Rushing Yards / 55.5 at -110 / 70% / Saints allow 2nd-most RB rush attempts league-wide, Achane high usage in Dolphins’ recent victories.
Player Prop #3: Jaylen Waddle / Over 60.5 Receiving Yards / 60.5 at -110 / 68% / Favorable matchup vs Saints secondary, Waddle consistent target volume with Tua (7th most WR rec TDs allowed by NO).

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Dolphins aligning with sharp line movement and money concentration, making a follow play optimal as metrics confirm no overvaluation—Saints’ offense hampered sans Kamara. Dolphins defense limits points while home offense exploits mismatches. Overall game projects low-scoring with under favored by recent trends and simulation average below total line.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Dolphins — simulation and contextual factors like injuries yield highest win probability.

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