Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

League: NFL | Date: 2025-12-28 01:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-28 09:36 AM EST

Miami Dolphins vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers on 2025-12-28

💰 Best Bet #1 [Miami Dolphins / Spread / +2.5 at -110 / 55% / Dolphins show value as underdogs with home-field edge and recent defensive improvements, covering in 52% of simulations despite Buccaneers’ offensive talent.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 45.5 at -110 / 54% / Both teams’ defenses have limited opponents to under 20 points per game recently, with injuries impacting key offensive weapons, favoring a lower-scoring affair in line with 52% under probability.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Tampa Bay Buccaneers / Moneyline / -130 / 58% / Buccaneers hold a slight edge in win probability at 55%, driven by Baker Mayfield’s efficiency and Tampa’s better turnover margin against Miami’s injury-hit secondary.]

Game Times

ET: 1:00 PM
CT: 12:00 PM
MT: 11:00 AM
PT: 10:00 AM
AKT: 9:00 AM
HST: 8:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
[40% / 60%]

💰 Money Distribution
[45% / 55%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Buccaneers -1.5 and moved to -2.5 with balanced action, no significant reverse movement noted as of latest reports.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Dolphins spread / Simulations indicate a 52% cover rate for +2.5, providing positive EV against implied odds, supported by Miami’s home underdog performance this season.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Miami Dolphins | 45% |
| Win % for Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 55% |
| Spread Cover % for Miami Dolphins (+2.5) | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 45.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10, +8] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: De’Von Achane / Over Rushing Yards / 65.5 at -115 / 62% / Achane’s explosive usage in Miami’s offense averages 72 yards per game recently, facing a Buccaneers run defense allowing 4.8 yards per carry to backs this season.

Player Prop #2: Baker Mayfield / Over Passing Yards / 245.5 at -110 / 60% / Mayfield has exceeded 245 yards in 7 of his last 10 starts, exploiting Miami’s secondary weakened by injuries like Jaelan Phillips’ status.

Player Prop #3: Mike Evans / Over Receiving Yards / 72.5 at -105 / 58% / Evans consistently hits this mark against Miami’s coverage, with 78 yards average vs. AFC East teams, bolstered by Tampa’s pass-heavy scheme.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward the Buccaneers with 60% of bets, aligning with money distribution and sharp action on the favorite, making a follow strategy optimal rather than fading without clear RLM. Both offenses rank mid-tier in EPA per play, but defensive metrics and injuries suggest a controlled, lower-scoring game under the total. Miami’s home advantage tempers the spread, creating value on the underdog side.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Mathematical probability favors their win at 55%, backed by consensus data and simulations.

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