Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders

League: NFL | Date: 2025-11-16 09:30 AM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-16 07:03 AM EST

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders on 2025-11-16

💰 Best Bet #1 [Miami Dolphins / Spread / -2.5 at -110 / 55% / Dolphins hold edge with healthier roster and home advantage in neutral site matchup, Commanders hampered by key absences like Daniels and McLaurin, aligning with 53% cover rate in simulations]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 46.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams’ defenses show recent trends toward containment, with Commanders’ injuries limiting offensive output and Dolphins’ pace not forcing high totals, supported by average simulated points of 46.8]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Miami Dolphins / Moneyline / -135 / 58% / Simulations project 56% win probability for Dolphins, bolstered by superior EPA metrics and Commanders’ turnover-prone backup QB play]

Game Times
ET: 09:30 AM
CT: 08:30 AM
MT: 07:30 AM
PT: 06:30 AM
AKT: 05:30 AM
HST: 03:30 AM

💸 Public Bets
[Miami Dolphins 68% / Washington Commanders 32%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Miami Dolphins 72% / Washington Commanders 28%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Dolphins -3 but moved to -2.5 despite heavy public action on Miami, suggesting some sharp money on Commanders amid injury concerns

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Dolphins spread / Convergence of simulations, recent form showing Dolphins 7-3 ATS last 10, and Commanders’ 2-8 ATS on road with injuries outweigh public lean]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Miami Dolphins | 56% |
| Win % for Washington Commanders | 44% |
| Spread Cover % for Miami Dolphins | 53% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 49% / Under: 51% |
| Average Total Points | 46.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-5.2, +3.1] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: De’Von Achane / Over Rushing Yards / 60.5 at -110 / 70% / Achane averages 68 yards per game in 2025 with Dolphins’ efficient run scheme (4.8 YPC), Commanders allow 4.9 YPC to RBs, boosted by Daniels’ absence reducing pass focus

Player Prop #2: Tyreek Hill / Over Receiving Yards / 70.5 at -110 / 65% / Hill’s 2025 usage at 28% targets yields 82 yards average, Commanders’ secondary weakened by McLaurin’s absence and secondary injuries allowing 7.2 catches to WR1

Player Prop #3: Marcus Mariota / Under Passing Yards / 185.5 at -110 / 68% / Mariota’s backup role limits volume to 22 attempts average in 2025 starts, Dolphins’ top-10 pass defense (passer rating allowed 85) caps output in low-scoring projection

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the Dolphins, aligning with sharp money indicators and mathematical edges from EPA differentials, where Miami’s offense ranks top-5 while Washington’s drops without key starters. Following the public proves optimal here, as no reverse line movement contradicts the value amid Commanders’ injury fallout. Overall game scoring tilts under due to defensive efficiencies and reduced offensive firepower on both sides.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Miami Dolphins] — simulations and metrics confirm highest probability of success against depleted Commanders.

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