Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers

League: NBA | Date: 2025-11-12 07:40 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-12 06:21 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Miami Heat / Spread / -5.5 at -110 / 58% / Miami’s home advantage and Cleveland’s key absences (Mitchell, Mobley, Garland out) boost cover probability, aligning with sharp money and recent form where Heat edged Cavaliers in OT.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 239.5 at -112 / 58% / Both teams’ defensive ratings in current season (Heat 108.2 DRTG, Cavs depleted offense at 112.5 ORTG) and simulation average of 226.8 points favor a lower-scoring rematch despite prior high total.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Miami Heat / Moneyline / -205 / 72% / Overwhelming edge from Cavaliers’ injury report (multiple stars out/rest), Heat’s 6-4 record, and home dominance against depleted foes.]

Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers on 2025-11-12

Game Times

ET: 7:40 PM
CT: 6:40 PM
MT: 5:40 PM
PT: 4:40 PM
AKT: 3:40 PM
HST: 1:40 PM

💸 Public Bets

[Miami Heat 72% / Cleveland Cavaliers 28%]

💰 Money Distribution

[Miami Heat 68% / Cleveland Cavaliers 32%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at -4.5 for Miami but moved to -5.5 after Cleveland injury news (Mitchell, Mobley, Garland ruled out), indicating sharp action on Heat despite public favoritism.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+4.2% on Heat spread; implied probability undervalues Miami’s win chance given Cavs’ absences and Heat’s home efficiency (115.2 ORTG vs. depleted Cavs defense).]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Miami Heat | 72.34% |
| Win % for Cleveland Cavaliers | 27.66% |
| Spread Cover % for Miami Heat | 58.12% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 42.50% / Under: 57.50% |
| Average Total Points | 226.80 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.30, 25.10] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Jaime Jaquez Jr / Over Points / 15.5 at -106 / 75% / Jaquez’s increased usage (28% in recent games without full rotation) and Cavs’ weak perimeter D (36% opponent 3PT allowed) support exceeding line, averaging 17.2 vs. similar matchups.

Player Prop #2: Nikola Jovic / Over Points + Rebounds / 16.5 at -120 / 72% / Jovic’s efficiency (52% TS% current season) rises against injury-hit Cavs frontcourt, hitting over in 4/5 recent outings with 12.8 combined average boosted by rebounding edge.

Player Prop #3: Kel’el Ware / Over Rebounds / 10.5 at -140 / 70% / Ware’s rebound rate (18.2% current season) exploits Cavs’ missing Mobley/Allen interior presence, clearing line in 70% of games vs. depleted bigs.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Miami, aligning with sharp money on the spread as lines adjusted post-Cleveland injuries, creating value without needing a fade. Follow the public here, as metrics confirm Heat’s edge in a controlled, lower-scoring affair. Overall outlook points to under, with Heat’s defense (top-5 DRTG) stifling a shorthanded Cavs offense averaging just 105 points without stars.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Miami Heat] — Mathematical probability favors Heat victory and cover in this mismatch.

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