NBA
Miami Heat vs 
Memphis Grizzlies
League: NBA | Game Time: 8:00 PM ET • 7:00 PM CT • 6:00 PM MT • 5:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-21 05:07 PM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 Miami Heat -11.5 at -110 / 57% Confidence / Miami’s superior recent form (avg +9.2 margin last 10), home advantage, and Memphis’ extensive injuries (Morant, Edey, Clarke out) drive 55%+ cover rate vs implied line.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under 236.5 at -110 / 68% Confidence / Both teams’ defensive metrics converge with sim avg total 230.4; Miami allows 110 PPG recently, Grizzlies depleted offense projects low-scoring affair.
💰 Best Bet #3 Miami Heat Moneyline at -550 / 73% Confidence / 72% sim win probability aligns with heavy injuries to Grizzlies’ core, Heat’s rest edge and home dominance outweigh juice.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Miami Heat | 72.3% |
| Win % for Memphis Grizzlies | 25.4% |
| Spread Cover % for Miami Heat | 55.1% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 32.7% / Under: 67.3% |
| Average Total Points | 230.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [0.2, 24.8] |
Miami Heat vs Memphis Grizzlies
💸 Public Bets
Miami Heat 92% / Memphis Grizzlies 8% (ML); 52% / 48% (spread)
💰 Money Distribution
Miami Heat 97% / Memphis Grizzlies 3% (ML); 57% / 43% (spread)
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Stable per provided data—no significant shifts noted
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on Heat spread (model cover > implied 52.4%); +3.8% Under (67% prob vs 52.4% implied); contrarian value fading spread public slightly
Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public and sharp money heavily aligned on Heat moneyline amid Memphis’ injury crisis (8 players out or questionable, including Morant and Edey), supporting follow on Miami side despite juice. Spread offers mild contrarian value as public splits near even but model projects solid cover. Game tilts low-scoring with Under favored by defensive paces, depleted Grizzlies offense, and Miami’s controlled style (avg total under line).
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Miami Heat — model, injuries, and market consensus confirm highest probability.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
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