Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder

League: NBA | Date: 2026-01-17 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-17 05:35 PM EST

Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder on 2026-01-17

💰 Best Bet #1 [Oklahoma City Thunder / Spread / -7.5 at -110 / 65% / Thunder’s superior offensive rating and Heat’s recent defensive struggles in the current season support covering the spread, with simulation showing strong edge.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 231.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams exhibit moderate pace and solid defensive efficiencies this season, aligning with the simulation’s slight under lean based on average total points.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Oklahoma City Thunder / Moneyline / -290 / 72% / Thunder’s win probability dominates due to key players’ form and Miami’s injury concerns, offering positive EV despite juice.]

Game Times

ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[35% / 65%]

💰 Money Distribution
[25% / 75%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
[Line opened at -7 and held steady, with minor steam toward Thunder despite public support]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+4.2% on Thunder spread; simulation probabilities exceed implied odds, bolstered by current season metrics like Thunder’s top-5 defensive rating]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Miami Heat | 28.5% |
| Win % for Oklahoma City Thunder | 71.5% |
| Spread Cover % for Miami Heat | 45.2% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.3% / Under: 51.7% |
| Average Total Points | 230.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-24.1, 4.7] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward the Thunder, aligning with sharp money and strong seasonal performance metrics, making a follow strategy optimal rather than fading. The game’s scoring outlook points to a controlled pace, with both defenses capable of limiting high totals based on recent trends. Overall, the matchup favors Oklahoma City due to superior efficiency and Miami’s road challenges.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Oklahoma City Thunder / No clear edge]

Highlights unavailable.