Michigan State vs Maryland

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-29 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-29 09:55 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Michigan State / -3.5 at -110 / 58% / Recent form shows MSU edging close games while Maryland struggles on road; line stable with sharp money on home side.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / 50.5 at -110 / 54% / Both teams averaging 34+ points in recent wins against weak defenses, tempo favors high-scoring affair indoors at Ford Field.

💰 Best Bet #3 Michigan State / Moneyline at -162 / 59% / Home/neutral advantage and better havoc rate give MSU edge in simulation win probability.

🏈 Michigan State vs Maryland on 2025-11-29

Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Michigan State 62% / Maryland 38%

💰 Money Distribution
Michigan State 58% / Maryland 42%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened Michigan State -2.5, moved to -3.5 on moderate volume despite public lean; no major RLM.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Michigan State spread; convergence of recent offensive outputs and defensive adjustments vs weak schedules supports cover.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Michigan State | 58.2% |
| Win % for Maryland | 39.1% |
| Spread Cover % for Michigan State (-3.5) | 55.4% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 53.7% / Under: 46.3% |
| Average Total Points | 51.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-14.2, 20.1] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Aidan Chiles / Over Passing Yards / 225.5 / -115 / 67% / Chiles averaging 240+ in recent starts, Maryland secondary allows 7.2 YPP; favorable matchup indoors.
Player Prop #2: Nick Marsh / Over Receiving Yards / 65.5 / -120 / 62% / Primary target with 72% usage rate, Terps rank bottom-40 in explosive receptions allowed.
Player Prop #3: Octavian Smith Jr. / Under Receiving Yards / 55.5 / -110 / 65% / MSU havoc rate 28%, Smith held under in 4/5 road-like games; volume limited by QB play.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public and money percentages align on Michigan State, supported by line stability and no sharp fade indicators. Follow the market consensus here as EV confirms value on home side without contrarian signals. Game projects moderately high-scoring with combined offenses pushing toward over based on pace and weak recent opponents.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Michigan State — simulation and metrics project 58% win probability with positive EV on key lines.

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