Michigan vs Ohio State

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-29 12:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-29 08:56 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Ohio State / Spread / -10.5 at -110 / 65% / Ohio State boasts No. 1 offense and No. 4 defense per current metrics, recent dominance over Texas, line movement toward Buckeyes signals sharp action despite public pile-on

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 45.5 at -110 / 62% / Total crashed from 55+ amid strong defenses (OSU havoc rate elite, Michigan allows low explosive plays), cold weather and run-heavy projections limit scoring

💰 Best Bet #3 Ohio State / Moneyline / -450 / 75% / Undefeated top-ranked Buckeyes vs 15th-ranked Wolverines struggling post-signgate, historical edge flipping with superior SP+/FPI

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Michigan | 23.4% |
| Win % for Ohio State | 74.1% |
| Spread Cover % for Michigan (+10.5) | 36.2% |
| Spread Cover % for Ohio State (-10.5) | 62.8% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.7% / Under: 51.3% |
| Average Total Points | 48.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [2.1, 24.8] |

🏈 Michigan vs Ohio State on 2025-11-29

Game Times
ET: 12:00 PM
CT: 11:00 AM
MT: 10:00 AM
PT: 9:00 AM
AKT: 8:00 AM
HST: 6:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
Ohio State 78% / Michigan 22%

💰 Money Distribution
Ohio State 85% / Michigan 15%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened Ohio State -8.5 to -12.5 peak, settled -10.5; total dropped from 52 to 43.5 on sharp under action

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.8% on Ohio State -10.5; convergence of FPI differential (OSU +18), RLM supporting favorite, current season yards/play (OSU 7.2 vs Mich 5.1)

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Jeremiah Smith / Over 72.5 Receiving Yards / -115 / 72% / Elite WR usage 25% targets, Michigan secondary injuries weaken coverage (allow 8.2 YPR current season)

Player Prop #2: Will Howard / Over 248.5 Passing Yards / -110 / 69% / High tempo offense vs Michigan pass D ranked outside top 60, recent 300+ yd games vs similar foes

Player Prop #3: Justice Haynes / Under 55.5 Rushing Yards / +105 / 67% / Ohio State No. 4 rush defense (2.8 YPC allowed), Haynes avg 48 yds last 3 amid OL issues

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Ohio State aligning with sharp money via line movement toward the Buckeyes and money concentration, making follow optimal over fade. Michigan’s recent loss to Oklahoma exposes vulnerabilities against elite competition, while OSU’s explosive play rate dominates. Overall game projects moderate scoring with defensive edges prevailing in rivalry intensity.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Ohio State — superior metrics and market consensus yield highest win probability.

Highlights unavailable.