Michigan Wolverines vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-11 06:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-11 05:40 PM EST

Michigan Wolverines vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons on 2025-11-11

💰 Best Bet #1 Michigan Wolverines / Spread / -14.5 at -110 / 68% / Michigan’s superior adjusted efficiency ratings and home-court edge in a neutral-site game near campus overpower Wake Forest’s inexperienced roster, with recent defensive tweaks under new coaching supporting a double-digit cover.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 168.5 at -110 / 62% / Both teams show moderate tempos early in the season, with Michigan’s improved defense allowing under 70 points per game and Wake Forest struggling offensively against stronger opponents, trending toward a controlled, lower-scoring affair.

💰 Best Bet #3 Michigan Wolverines / Moneyline / -1600 / 92% / Overwhelming talent disparity and full health for key bigs like Lendeborg give Michigan a clear path to victory against a rebuilding Wake Forest squad.

Game Times

ET: 6:30 PM
CT: 5:30 PM
MT: 4:30 PM
PT: 3:30 PM
AKT: 2:30 PM
HST: 12:30 PM

💸 Public Bets
Michigan Wolverines 78% / Wake Forest Demon Deacons 22%

💰 Money Distribution
Michigan Wolverines 68% / Wake Forest Demon Deacons 32%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
The spread opened at -14 and has held steady at -14.5 to -15 across major books, with minimal movement despite heavy public action on Michigan, indicating sharp consensus on the favorite without overreaction.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2.8% on Michigan spread / Line stability and public alignment with efficiency metrics (Michigan’s KenPom adjD #12 vs. Wake Forest’s #98) confirm value, while total edges lean under due to defensive paces.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Michigan Wolverines | 89% |
| Win % for Wake Forest Demon Deacons | 11% |
| Spread Cover % for Michigan Wolverines | 64% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 162.3 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [+8, +22] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Yaxel Lendeborg / Over Points / 15.5 at -125 / 72% / Lendeborg’s usage as Michigan’s primary post threat (averaging 18.2 PPG in limited early action) exploits Wake Forest’s weak interior defense (allowing 42% 2P), with full recovery boosting scoring efficiency.
Player Prop #2: Nate Calmese / Over Points / 8.5 at -125 / 70% / Calmese’s guard play thrives in transition against Wake Forest’s turnover-prone backcourt (18% TO rate), hitting over in 4 of last 5 outings with Michigan’s fast-break emphasis.
Player Prop #3: Juke Harris / Over Points / 14.5 at -110 / 65% / Harris leads Wake Forest in scoring (16.1 PPG preseason) and faces Michigan’s perimeter D vulnerable to wings, projecting volume shots in a catch-up scenario for the underdog.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Michigan, aligning with sharp money and line stability, making a follow-the-public approach optimal as metrics like KenPom efficiency (Michigan #6 overall) and injury recoveries (Lendeborg at 100%, Cason returning) reinforce the favorite without contrarian value. Wake Forest’s portal-heavy rebuild shows offensive limitations (adjO #112), limiting upset potential. Overall game scoring outlook points low, with both defenses clamping rebounding and tempo (combined avg total 155 in exhibitions), favoring the under amid neutral-site containment.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Michigan Wolverines — Mathematical projections and market consensus highlight a high-probability win and cover driven by talent and health edges.

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