Middle Tenn. St. vs Delaware

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 2:00 PM ET • 1:00 PM CT • 12:00 PM MT • 11:00 AM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-21 07:58 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders / -8.5 / -110 / 55%
Simulation projects 51.1% cover probability exceeding -110 implied odds, with money flowing to dog despite even public split signaling value on home spread.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 137.5 at -110 / 54%
Model average total at 137.1 with 51.1% under probability; public (57%) and money (61%) heavily favor under aligning with low line and defensive matchup.

💰 Best Bet #3 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders / Moneyline / -400 / 52%
76.8% simulated win rate, public (87%) and money (92%) consensus on heavy favorite despite short odds.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 76.8% |
| Win % for Delaware Blue Hens | 23.2% |
| Spread Cover % for Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | 51.1% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.9% / Under: 51.1% |
| Average Total Points | 137.1 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-14.9, 33.0] |

🏈 Matchup: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Delaware Blue Hens on 2026-02-21

💸 Public Bets
[47% / 53%]
💰 Money Distribution
[42% / 58%]
💹 Market Alignment
Divergent
📉 Line Movement
Stable per available data
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2.5% on MTSU -8.5; reverse line movement absent but money on dog (58%) vs model edge justifies fade

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment splits evenly on spread but tilts to dog while money (58%) follows, yet simulation and implied efficiencies favor MTSU cover without strong RLM confirmation. Sharp resistance to public ML fade absent as consensus backs home. Overall game projects low-scoring under with avg total 137.1 below line amid defensive metrics and public lean.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Delaware +8.5 — model confirms mathematical edge for home spread.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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