Milwaukee Bucks vs Detroit Pistons

League: NBA | Date: 2025-11-22 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-22 05:48 PM EST

Milwaukee Bucks vs Detroit Pistons on 2025-11-22

💰 Best Bet #1 [Detroit Pistons / Spread / -9 at -110 / 58% / Pistons’ strong form and Bucks’ key injuries like Giannis Antetokounmpo out create a clear edge, with line movement supporting the favorite despite public heavy action.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 219.5 at -110 / 54% / Both teams’ defensive ratings in recent games and injuries to scorers suggest a controlled pace, below the average total projection.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Detroit Pistons / Moneyline / -400 / 67% / Pistons’ 11-game win streak and home dominance outweigh Bucks’ depleted roster, offering value in the implied probability.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Milwaukee Bucks | 33% |
| Win % for Detroit Pistons | 67% |
| Spread Cover % for Milwaukee Bucks (+9) | 42% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 46% / Under: 54% |
| Average Total Points | 219.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.5, -2.1] |

Game Times
ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[25% Bucks / 75% Pistons]

💰 Money Distribution
[40% Bucks / 60% Pistons]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Pistons -8 and moved to -9 with steady sharp action on Detroit despite public favoritism.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Pistons spread; convergence of injuries, recent form, and RLM indicate positive EV against Bucks’ weakened offense.]

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Cade Cunningham / Over 25.5 Points / 25.5 at -110 / 75% / Cunningham’s 28.5 PPG average in last 10 games and increased usage with Ivey questionable exploit Bucks’ poor perimeter defense (allowing 115+ points recently).

Player Prop #2: Damian Lillard / Under 20.5 Points / 20.5 at -110 / 70% / Lillard’s efficiency drops without Giannis (on/off -15), and Pistons’ backcourt limits guards to under 20 in 7 of last 10 matchups.

Player Prop #3: Bobby Portis / Over 8.5 Rebounds / 8.5 at -112 / 72% / Portis grabs 10+ boards in Giannis’ absence (last 5 games avg 11.2), facing Pistons’ weak interior rebounding (45% rate allowed).

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the Pistons, aligning with sharp money and line movement, making a follow strategy optimal as Bucks’ injuries (Giannis out, Prince out) diminish their scoring potential. The matchup projects as low-scoring due to Detroit’s top-10 defensive rating and Milwaukee’s recent under trends in 6 of 10 games. Overall, the edge lies with the favorite without contrarian value.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Pistons] — mathematical probability favors Detroit’s win and cover based on current form and absences.

Highlights unavailable.