Minnesota Timberwolves vs Boston Celtics

League: NBA | Date: 2025-11-29 05:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-29 11:57 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Minnesota Timberwolves / Spread / -7.5 at -110 / 56% / Tatum out cripples Celtics offense; sim cover rate aligns with home dominance and public leaning underdog
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 228.5 at -110 / 52% / Avg sim total 226.8 below line; strong defenses, injuries limit scoring pace
💰 Best Bet #3 Minnesota Timberwolves / Moneyline / -310 / 64% / 64% win probability in sim, boosted by Boston key absences and home court

🏀 Minnesota Timberwolves vs Boston Celtics on 2025-11-29

Game Times
ET: 5:00 PM
CT: 4:00 PM
MT: 3:00 PM
PT: 2:00 PM
AKT: 1:00 PM
HST: 11:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
MIN 42% / BOS 58%

💰 Money Distribution
MIN 42% / BOS 58%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Line opened around -6.5, moved to -7.5 amid injury news favoring Timberwolves despite public action on Celtics.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Minnesota Timberwolves | 64% |
| Win % for Boston Celtics | 36% |
| Spread Cover % for Minnesota Timberwolves (-7.5) | 56% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 226.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12, +4] |

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4% on MIN -7.5 — Public/money split on BOS but Tatum OUT shifts value to home side; sim and RLM support cover.

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Anthony Edwards / Over 26.5 Points / -110 / 65% / Elevated usage (30%+) vs depleted Celtics backcourt; 67% hit rate at home this season
Player Prop #2: Rudy Gobert / Over 12.5 Rebounds / -112 / 62% / Dominates boards vs thin Boston frontcourt (Brown Q); 70% over in similar matchups
Player Prop #3: Derrick White / Under 20.5 PRA / -108 / 60% / Limited role sans Tatum; averages 18 PRA last 5, favorable MIN perimeter D

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public and money percentages align on Boston +7.5, but Tatum’s confirmed absence and Brown/Queta questionable create sharp value fading the public on the depleted visitors. Timberwolves leverage home edge and full health for control. Expect low-scoring affair with MIN’s top-10 defense holding Boston under pace.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Boston Celtics — Mathematical edge with Timberwolves across sim, injuries, and market signals.

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