Minnesota Timberwolves vs Memphis Grizzlies

League: NBA | Date: 2025-12-17 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-17 06:21 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Minnesota Timberwolves / Spread / -7.5 at -110 / 55% / Timberwolves hold a strong edge at home with Grizzlies hampered by multiple injuries including Ja Morant questionable and key absences like Brandon Clarke and Zach Edey out, supporting a cover in 55% of simulations based on defensive ratings and recent form.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 230.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams rank in the bottom half for pace and offensive efficiency this season, with Minnesota’s top-ranked defense limiting opponents to under 110 points recently, projecting an average total of 223.5 points.

💰 Best Bet #3 Minnesota Timberwolves / Moneyline / -310 / 62% / Home advantage and superior net rating give Minnesota a clear path to victory, especially against a depleted Memphis roster, aligning with 62% win probability from matchup metrics.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Memphis Grizzlies on 2025-12-17

Game Times

ET: 08:00 PM
CT: 07:00 PM
MT: 06:00 PM
PT: 05:00 PM
AKT: 04:00 PM
HST: 02:00 PM

Public Bets

Minnesota Timberwolves 72% / Memphis Grizzlies 28%

💸 Public Bets

Minnesota Timberwolves 72% / Memphis Grizzlies 28%

💰 Money Distribution

Minnesota Timberwolves 68% / Memphis Grizzlies 32%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Minnesota -6.5 and moved to -7.5 despite heavy public action on the favorite, indicating some sharp support for the Timberwolves cover amid Grizzlies injury news.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Minnesota spread / Line movement and injury impacts create value against implied odds, with simulations showing positive EV on home cover due to Memphis’s depleted frontcourt.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Minnesota Timberwolves | 62% |
| Win % for Memphis Grizzlies | 38% |
| Spread Cover % for Minnesota Timberwolves | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 223.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10, 18] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Anthony Edwards / Points Over / 26.5 at -115 / 68% / Edwards averages 28.2 points against similar defenses this season, with high usage (32%) and Memphis ranking 22nd in perimeter defense, supporting over in 7 of last 10 games.

Player Prop #2: Rudy Gobert / Rebounds Over / 12.5 at -110 / 65% / Gobert’s 13.1 rebound average climbs at home versus Memphis’s weak interior (allowing 14.2 opponent boards), with on/off data showing +5 rebound edge without JJJ Jackson.

Player Prop #3: Desmond Bane / Points Under / 20.5 at -105 / 62% / Bane’s production dips to 18.4 points on back-to-backs against elite defenses like Minnesota’s (top-5 in opponent eFG%), with recent form under in 6 of 9 outings.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Minnesota, aligning with money distribution and sharp indicators from line movement, making a follow on the Timberwolves optimal rather than a fade. Injuries to Memphis’s core, including Morant questionable and multiple reserves out, tilt the matchup further toward Minnesota’s defensive strengths. Overall game scoring projects low due to both teams’ mid-tier paces and Minnesota’s elite rim protection limiting transition opportunities.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Minnesota Timberwolves — simulations and market consensus point to a strong home win probability driven by roster advantages.

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