NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves vs 
New Orleans Pelicans
League: NBA | Game Time: 8:30 PM ET • 7:30 PM CT • 6:30 PM MT • 5:30 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-04-11 05:39 PM EDT
💰 Best Bet #1 Minnesota Timberwolves -9 at -112 / 65% / Simulations show 63% cover rate with strong home defense against depleted Pelicans roster, positive EV vs implied 52.9%.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under 231.5 at -110 / 60% / Recent MIN totals average 224 points, injuries limit NOP scoring, sim projects 226 average total.
💰 Best Bet #3 Minnesota Timberwolves Moneyline -400 / 80% / 78% sim win probability aligns with heavy public/sharp ML consensus.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Minnesota Timberwolves | 78.2% |
| Win % for New Orleans Pelicans | 21.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Minnesota Timberwolves | 62.5% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 42.3% / Under: 57.7% |
| Average Total Points | 226.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-4.1, 27.9] |
🏀 Minnesota Timberwolves vs New Orleans Pelicans
💸 Public Bets
MIN 49% / NOP 51%
💰 Money Distribution
MIN 46% / NOP 54%
💹 Market Alignment
Divergent
📉 Line Movement
Stable at MIN -9 across major books; no major RLM despite slight money on underdog.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% EV on MIN -9 (63% model prob vs. 52.9% implied); under 231.5 offers +2.8% EV with defensive matchup and injuries.
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Anthony Edwards / Over 27.5 Points / -115 / 72% / Leads MIN scoring at 28+ PPG recently, NOP depleted backcourt allows high usage/explosive plays.
Player Prop #2: Mike Conley / Over 6.5 Assists / -110 / 68% / Steady playmaker vs weak NOP perimeter D, averages 7.2 AST last 10 with elevated pace.
Player Prop #3: DeAndre Jordan / Over 8.5 Rebounds / -112 / 70% / Primary rebounder for shorthanded NOP (Gobert matchup favors boards), 9.1 RPG recently on volume.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets lean slightly NOP spread but money follows at 54%, creating divergence that favors fading underdog given Pelicans’ extensive injuries (Murray, Murphy, Zion out). Sharp consensus aligns with MIN dominance on ML while model exploits spread value. Game projects low-scoring with MIN elite defense (112 PA avg) vs NOP offense hampered by absences, favoring under.
🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on New Orleans Pelicans — MIN covers with superior metrics and matchup.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
🔍 Gemini Deep Look Analysis
Strongest Bet
– Under 233.5 — This total is inflated given that Minnesota’s leading scorer Anthony Edwards is battling runner’s knee and New Orleans is missing Dejounte Murray and Trey Murphy III.
– Minnesota Timberwolves -9.5 — The Pelicans have collapsed to a 26-55.