NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves vs 
San Antonio Spurs
League: NBA | Date: 2025-11-30 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-30 06:14 PM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 Minnesota Timberwolves / Spread / -3.5 at -110 / 58% / Simulation cover rate at 58%, bolstered by Spurs key absences including Wembanyama limiting their offense.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 233.5 at -110 / 52% / Average simulated total of 221.3 points, with Spurs defensive strengths persisting despite injuries and both teams ranking mid-pack in recent pace-adjusted efficiency.
💰 Best Bet #3 Minnesota Timberwolves / Moneyline / -160 / 62% / 62% win probability from 10,000 sims, home advantage at Target Center and Spurs’ 13-5 record undermined by road trip and outs.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Minnesota Timberwolves | 62% |
| Win % for San Antonio Spurs | 38% |
| Spread Cover % for Minnesota Timberwolves (-3.5) | 58% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 221.3 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-8.2, 15.4] |
🏀 Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs on 2025-11-30
Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM
💸 Public Bets
68% Wolves / 32% Spurs
💰 Money Distribution
52% Wolves / 48% Spurs
💹 Market Alignment
Divergent
📉 Line Movement
Opened Wolves -4, moved to -3.5 amid sharp action on Spurs despite public favoritism toward home side.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.5% on Wolves spread — sim convergence with RLM and Spurs injuries (Wembanyama, Castle out) create value against inflated public line.
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Anthony Edwards / Over Points / 28.5 at -114 / 68% / Leads Wolves scoring at 27.8 PPG recently, faces Spurs PnR defense ranked 9th-weakest without Wembanyama.
Player Prop #2: Keldon Johnson / Over Points / 20.5 at -110 / 65% / Usage spikes to 28% sans Wemby/Castle, averaging 22.1 PPG in similar spots this season.
Player Prop #3: Rudy Gobert / Over Rebounds / 11.5 at -112 / 62% / Dominates boards vs Spurs’ depleted frontcourt, 12.4 RPG last 10 with elevated minutes on back-to-back.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public leans Wolves but money slightly split with subtle RLM toward underdog signaling pro interest; however, sims and injuries favor home cover without strong fade justification. Spurs’ elite transition defense (least allowed) caps totals alongside Wolves’ middling offense. Game projects low-scoring grind with under edge.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Minnesota Timberwolves — math and context align for home win/cover probability.
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