Minnesota vs Wisconsin

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-29 03:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-29 09:39 AM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets
💰 Best Bet #1 Wisconsin / Spread / -1.5 at -110 / 56% / Line movement favors Badgers amid sharp money despite public lean to home team; sim shows 54% cover rate.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 38.5 at -110 / 62% / Both teams rank bottom-half in yards per play (Minn 5.1, Wisc 5.3) and success rate (~42%); cold weather and defensive rivalry tilt low-scoring.
💰 Best Bet #3 Wisconsin / Moneyline / -118 / 54% / Superior defensive havoc rate and recent wins over ranked foes give edge in close matchup.

🏈 Matchup: Minnesota vs Wisconsin on 2025-11-29

Game Times
ET: 3:30 PM
CT: 2:30 PM
MT: 1:30 PM
PT: 12:30 PM
AKT: 11:30 AM
HST: 9:30 AM

💸 Public Bets
Minnesota 64% / Wisconsin 36%

💰 Money Distribution
Minnesota 42% / Wisconsin 58%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened Minnesota -2.5; moved to Wisconsin -1.5 despite 64% public on Gophers, indicating reverse line movement and professional action on Badgers.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.5% EV on Wisconsin spread; convergence of RLM, money %, and sim probabilities outweighs public home bias in unmotivated late-season rivalry.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Minnesota | 46.2% |
| Win % for Wisconsin | 52.1% |
| Spread Cover % for Minnesota (+1.5) | 51.8% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 41.3% / Under: 58.7% |
| Average Total Points | 41.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-13.2, 14.7] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Darius Taylor / Over Rushing Yards / 62.5 at -115 / 68% / Leads Gophers with 5.2 YPC vs Wisc def allowing 4.9; 7/10 recent overs, high usage in rivalry.
Player Prop #2: Billy Edwards Jr. / Under Passing Yards / 198.5 at -110 / 65% / Wisconsin QB faces Minn secondary top-30 in havoc rate; unders in 6/8 road starts, low tempo matchup.
Player Prop #3: Darrion Dupree / Over Rushing Yards / 55.5 at -112 / 70% / Badgers RB explosive rate 15% > Minn run def avg; 9/12 overs this season, volume up with cold weather favoring ground game.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily backs Minnesota at home, but divergent money distribution and RLM to Wisconsin signal sharp action on Badgers amid their defensive edge (havoc 18% vs Minn 15%). Both offenses struggle in cold (combined

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