Minnesota Wild vs Utah Mammoth

League: NHL | Date: 2025-10-25 06:00 PM EDT | Last Updated: 2025-10-25 05:15 PM EDT

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [Utah Mammoth / Bet Type = Spread +1.5 / -270 / 75% / Simulation shows 80.8% cover rate vs. implied 73%, supported by Utah’s 5-game win streak and Minnesota’s injuries weakening defense; line stable with sharp money on underdog.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Bet Type = Total 5.5 / -125 / 80% / High-scoring trends with Utah averaging 3.5+ goals recently and Minnesota allowing 3.2 per game; sim projects 83.4% over probability, pace favors offense despite goalie starts.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Utah Mammoth / Bet Type = Moneyline / +100 / 65% / Utah’s form (6-2) and xGF edge over Minnesota’s 3-4-1 slump; sim gives 53% win prob including ties, better than implied 50%, with public leaning home but RLM subtle toward road team.]

🏈 Matchup: Utah Mammoth at Minnesota Wild on 2025-10-25

Game Times

• ET: 6:00 PM
• CT: 5:00 PM
• MT: 4:00 PM
• PT: 3:00 PM
• AKT: 2:00 PM
• HST: 12:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

Minnesota Wild 62% / Utah Mammoth 38%

💰 Money Distribution

Minnesota Wild 55% / Utah Mammoth 45%

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Line opened Minnesota -1.5 (+220) and moved slightly to +210 despite 62% public on home side, indicating subtle sharp action on Utah +1.5; ML steady at -120/+100, total dipped from 6 to 5.5 at some books.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+4.2% on Utah +1.5 (sim cover 80.8% vs. implied 73%); +5.8% on Over 5.5 (83.4% sim vs. 55% implied); positive edges from Utah’s hot streak and Minnesota injuries (Zuccarello out impacts offense).

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Minnesota Wild | 35.7% |
| Win % for Utah Mammoth | 43.1% |
| Tie % | 21.1% |
| Spread Cover % for Minnesota Wild -1.5 | 19.2% |
| Spread Cover % for Utah Mammoth +1.5 | 80.8% |
| Over 5.5 Probability | 83.4% |
| Under 5.5 Probability | 16.6% |
| Over 6 Probability | 68.9% |
| Under 6 Probability | 16.6% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.9 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-4.8, 4.6] |

Top 3 Player Props

• Player Prop #1: Kirill Kaprizov / Over 3.5 Shots on Goal / Line 3.5 / -120 / 72% / Kaprizov averages 4.1 SOG recently, faces Utah’s average defense allowing 32 shots; matchup favors volume despite MIN’s offensive struggles.
• Player Prop #2: Clayton Keller / Over 0.5 Points / Line 0.5 / -115 / 68% / Keller leads Utah with 8 points in last 5 games, PK% 85% vs MIN’s 18% PP; hot streak and top-line usage support scoring likelihood.
• Player Prop #3: Filip Gustavsson / Under 28.5 Saves / Line 28.5 / +105 / 70% / Gustavsson faces Utah’s high-shot volume (33 avg), but sim projects 29 SOG; under backed by MIN’s recent low totals allowed, injury-depleted D may limit shots against.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public leans Minnesota as home favorite, but money disparity and slight RLM toward Utah signal sharp play on the road team amid their 5-game win streak and Minnesota’s key injuries (Zuccarello, Bogosian out). Math favors fading the public on Utah sides, with strong EV on spread and ML due to form mismatch. Game outlook points to higher scoring, as both teams’ defenses rank mid-pack (Utah xGA/60 2.8, MIN 2.9) and recent trends show overs in 7 of Utah’s last 10.

🔮 Recommended Play

Fade the public on Utah Mammoth — simulation and market edges confirm 53%+ win probability, optimal for +EV in this spot.

Highlights unavailable for future events.