Missouri vs Auburn

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-14 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-14 10:57 AM EST

Missouri vs Auburn on 2026-01-14

💰 Best Bet #1 [Auburn / Spread / -1.5 at -110 / 55% / Auburn’s superior adjusted efficiency and road performance against similar defenses provide a narrow edge, with recent form showing consistent covering in close SEC matchups.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 156.5 at -110 / 58% / Both teams exhibit moderate tempos and strong defensive rebounding metrics in recent games, leading to lower-scoring affairs, especially with Missouri’s home defense allowing under 75 points per game lately.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Auburn / Moneyline / -120 / 52% / Auburn’s higher offensive rating and key player availability tilt the win probability slightly in their favor despite being on the road.]

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[55% Missouri / 45% Auburn]

💰 Money Distribution
[40% Missouri / 60% Auburn]

💹 Market Alignment
[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Auburn -1 and moved to -1.5 with sharp action on the favorite despite public leaning home, indicating professional money influencing the shift.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Auburn spread; implied probability undervalues Auburn’s efficiency advantage per KenPom metrics, creating value against public home bias.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Missouri | 48% |
| Win % for Auburn | 52% |
| Spread Cover % for Missouri +1.5 | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 155 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-8, 6] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Johni Broome / Over Points / 18.5 at -115 / 62% / Broome’s usage rate exceeds 25% with Missouri’s interior defense vulnerable to post play, averaging 20+ in recent SEC games.
Player Prop #2: Tamar Bates / Under Points / 14.5 at -110 / 60% / Bates faces Auburn’s perimeter defense allowing under 30% from three, and his efficiency drops against top-50 opponents per current season splits.
Player Prop #3: Denver Jones / Over Assists / 3.5 at -120 / 58% / Jones benefits from Auburn’s ball movement in half-court sets, dishing 4+ assists in 70% of road games with high assist-to-turnover ratio.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment favors the home team Missouri, but divergent money distribution and reverse line movement toward Auburn suggest sharp action on the road favorite, making a fade of the public optimal here. Mathematical edges align with following the professionals on the spread and under, as both teams’ defensive efficiencies limit scoring potential below the total line. Overall, expect a grind-it-out contest with Auburn holding a slight edge in efficiency and execution.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Fade the public on Missouri / Follow the sharp money with Auburn] — Auburn’s metrics and market signals provide the best probability of success in this tight matchup.

Highlights unavailable.