NCAAB

Monmouth vs Stony Brook

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 7:00 PM ET • 6:00 PM CT • 5:00 PM MT • 4:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-26 08:09 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Monmouth Hawks / -4.5 / -107 / 58% / Simulation shows 56% cover rate, public/money aligned at 51%/56% on home with home-field edge in recent close games.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 143.5 / -110 / 55% / Avg simulated total 143.5 with 51% under probability; Monmouth recent home games avg 140 total, public money 57% under.
💰 Best Bet #3 Monmouth Hawks / Moneyline / -190 / 64% / 64% win probability from 10k sims, strong consensus backing home favorite.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Monmouth Hawks | 64% |
| Win % for Stony Brook Seawolves | 36% |
| Spread Cover % for Monmouth Hawks | 56% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 49% / Under: 51% |
| Average Total Points | 143.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-15, 24] |

🏈 Matchup: Monmouth Hawks vs Stony Brook Seawolves
💸 Public Bets
[Monmouth 51% / Stony Brook 49%]
💰 Money Distribution
[Monmouth 56% / Stony Brook 44%]
💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]
📉 Line Movement
[Stable across books at -4.5 / 143.5]
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Monmouth -4.5; model prob exceeds implied 52% vig-adjusted]

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Jack Collins (Monmouth) / Over 17.5 Points / -110 / 72% / Recent home avg 19.7 pts on 55% eFG%, favorable matchup vs Stony Brook defense allowing 68/g away.
Player Prop #2: Xander Rice (Monmouth) / Over 5.5 Rebounds / -112 / 68% / Grabs 6.3 reb/game recently, Stony Brook weak on defensive boards (42% rate).
Player Prop #3: Aaron Reed (Stony Brook) / Under 14.5 Points / -108 / 70% / Struggles away (11.3 avg), Monmouth limits guards to 38% FG in recent home wins.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment aligns with sharp money on Monmouth spread and ML, supported by simulation edges and home recent form in low-margin games. Follow optimal here as no RLM or disparity signals contrarian value. Overall game projects low-to-mid 140s total based on Monmouth defensive home splits and Stony Brook road variance.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Monmouth Hawks]

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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