NCAAB

Monmouth vs Stony Brook

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 7:00 PM ET • 6:00 PM CT • 5:00 PM MT • 4:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-26 08:08 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Monmouth Hawks / -4.5 / -107 / 56% / Home edge aligns with money steam (56% handle), recent defensive form limits Stony Brook road scoring, sim cover convergence
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 143.5 at -110 / 54% / Monmouth games avg 140 total recently, Stony Brook variance high but matchup projects low pace/defensive battle
💰 Best Bet #3 Monmouth Hawks / Moneyline / -190 / 64% / Public/sharp alignment on favorite, home win prob exceeds implied 65.5% breakeven

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Monmouth Hawks | 64% |
| Win % for Stony Brook Seawolves | 36% |
| Spread Cover % for Monmouth Hawks | 53% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 141.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-21, 30] |

🏈 Matchup: Monmouth Hawks vs Stony Brook Seawolves on 2026-02-27
💸 Public Bets
[Monmouth 51% / Stony Brook 49%]
💰 Money Distribution
[Monmouth 56% / Stony Brook 44%]
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Stable line holding at -4.5 despite moderate public action on home side
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.1% on Monmouth spread; sim probabilities exceed implied odds with home defensive metrics supporting cover

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Tahmir Lippert (Monmouth) / Over Points / 13.5 at -110 / 72% / Leads team usage in recent games (avg 14.7 pts last 3), Stony Brook weak perimeter D allows guard overs
Player Prop #2: Jack Collins (Monmouth) / Over Rebounds / 6.5 at -112 / 68% / Dominates boards at home (7.3 avg), Stony Brook poor defensive rebounding rate projects easy overs
Player Prop #3: Aaron Clarke (Stony Brook) / Under Points / 14.5 at -108 / 70% / Monmouth clamps guards (opponents avg 12.2), recent road form under line in 2/3

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment on Monmouth spread aligns closely with sharp money (56% handle vs 51% bets), supporting a follow rather than fade given no RLM divergence. Contextual factors like Monmouth’s recent home defensive showing (allowing 70 PPG) and Stony Brook’s road inconsistency favor the favorite. Overall game projects low-scoring under due to Monmouth’s slow tempo and combined recent totals under 143.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public on Monmouth — sim and market consensus point to home cover/win as highest EV.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

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