Montreal Canadiens vs Ottawa Senators

League: NHL | Date: 2025-12-02 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-02 08:32 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Montreal Canadiens / +1.5 / -220 / 78% / Public 76% and money 56% heavily backing home dog to cover, strong home record 13-8, sim cover rate high in close matchup

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 6.5 at -110 / 52% / Data shows heavy money 80% on Over with pace suggesting goals, sim avg 5.9 but flip favors Over per historical perf

💰 Best Bet #3 Montreal Canadiens / Moneyline / -108 / 51% / Slight home edge vs road favorite, recent preseason dominance 5-0 win

🏒 Montreal Canadiens vs Ottawa Senators on 2025-12-02

Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Montreal +1.5 76% / Ottawa -1.5 24%

💰 Money Distribution
Montreal +1.5 56% / Ottawa -1.5 44%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Stable at Ottawa -112 ML, 6.5 total; no significant RLM despite public lean

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2.5% on Montreal +1.5; public/money convergence with home form outweighs slight road fave value

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|—————————–|————————|
| Win % for Montreal Canadiens | 48.2% |
| Win % for Ottawa Senators | 46.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Montreal Canadiens +1.5 | 81.5% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.9 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.1, 2.8] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Cole Caufield / Over 2.5 SOG / -135 / 72% / Consistent shooter 4/4 home overs recently, Sens allow high SOG to wings
Player Prop #2: Nick Suzuki / Over 0.5 Points / -120 / 68% / High usage center, 3+ pts last 5 vs similar defenses
Player Prop #3: Tim Stützle / Over 2.5 SOG / +110 / 65% / Volume shooter, Habs weak on perimeter containment per Corsi data

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment aligns with sharp money indicators on Montreal +1.5, justifying follow over fade despite Ottawa’s slight fave status. Game outlook leans low-scoring with strong goalie metrics and defensive xGA, but flipped sim favors Over value. Tkachuk wrist injury adds uncertainty to Sens offense.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Montreal Canadiens — highest probability edge in aligned market and sim support.

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