NCAAB
Morehead State vs 
Southern Indiana
League: NCAAB | Game Time: 7:30 PM ET • 6:30 PM CT • 5:30 PM MT • 4:30 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-24 08:05 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 Morehead St Eagles / -8.5 at -110 / 65%
Simulation convergence with 60% cover probability exceeds implied odds, value against slight money on dog despite split public bets.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 143.5 at -110 / 62%
Money 61% and bets 57% on under align with sim avg total of 140 and 57% under prob from defensive metrics.
💰 Best Bet #3 Morehead St Eagles / Moneyline at -465 / 82%
Heavy public (89% bets, 94% money) and sim 81% win rate confirm strong home edge.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Morehead St Eagles | 81.0% |
| Win % for Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles | 19.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Morehead St Eagles | 60.3% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 42.7% / Under: 57.3% |
| Average Total Points | 140.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-14.6, 37.9] |
🏀 Matchup: Morehead St Eagles vs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles
💸 Public Bets
[47% / 53%]
💰 Money Distribution
[42% / 58%]
💹 Market Alignment
Divergent
📉 Line Movement
Stable at -8.5 across books with no reported shifts.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Morehead St -8.5] — Implied probability 52% vs. sim true prob 60%, supported by home dominance and under lean.
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Drew Thelwell (Morehead St) / Over 16.5 Points / -110 / 75% — Leads team scoring avg 18 PPG, exploits Southern Ind weak perimeter D allowing 75 PPG.
Player Prop #2: Riley Minix (Morehead St) / Over 8.5 Rebounds / -112 / 72% — Dominant boards at 9.2 RPG vs opponent yielding 38 RPG allowed recently.
Player Prop #3: Jeremiah Fears (Southern Ind) / Under 12.5 Points / -108 / 70% — Usage down vs stout Morehead D (top-100 eff), avg 10.8 in road tilts.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily favors Morehead St moneyline while split on spread with money leaning dog, creating value on home cover as sim and ML consensus align against the spread divergence. Defensive efficiencies project low-scoring affair under total line. No key injuries alter outlook, rest advantage to home.
🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Southern Indiana +8.5 — Mathematical sim edge overrides slight money flow to dog.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
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