Morgan St Bears vs UMBC Retrievers

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-11 06:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-11 05:39 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Morgan St Bears / Spread / +4.5 at -112 / 52% / Home underdogs show resilience in recent games, with simulation indicating a tight margin; UMBC’s road efficiency dips against mid-majors.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 162.5 at -112 / 55% / Both teams rank below average in pace and offensive efficiency this season, with defensive rebounding limiting second-chance points for a projected average of 160 total.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [UMBC Retrievers / Moneyline / -180 / 62% / UMBC’s superior adjusted offensive rating and win probability from simulations support the favorite status despite public leaning.]

Morgan St Bears vs UMBC Retrievers on 2025-11-11

Game Times

ET: 6:00 PM
CT: 5:00 PM
MT: 4:00 PM
PT: 3:00 PM
AKT: 2:00 PM
HST: 12:00 PM

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Morgan St Bears | 38% |
| Win % for UMBC Retrievers | 62% |
| Spread Cover % for Morgan St Bears | 48% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 160 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10, 18] |

💸 Public Bets
[Morgan St Bears 40% / UMBC Retrievers 60%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Morgan St Bears 45% / UMBC Retrievers 55%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
[Stable at -4.5 for UMBC; opened at -4 and held steady with balanced action, no significant sharp movement noted as of 2025-11-11.]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Under 162.5; simulations and tempo data show value in low-scoring outcome, with implied probability undervaluing defensive strengths.]

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment favors UMBC with 60% of bets, aligning with money distribution at 55%, indicating consensus without sharp resistance or reverse line movement. Following the public on UMBC makes sense mathematically, as simulations confirm their edge in efficiency ratings. The game projects as moderately low-scoring, with both teams’ defensive metrics and slower tempos favoring the under based on current season averages of under 80 points per game each.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with UMBC Retrievers] — simulations and market consensus point to the highest probability of success on the favorite.

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