Mount St. Mary's vs Howard

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-29 04:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-29 10:35 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Mount St. Mary’s / Spread / -5.5 at -110 / 65% confidence
Mount St. Mary’s holds superior adjusted efficiency ratings per recent KenPom data and benefits from home-court advantage against a struggling Howard squad.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 143.5 at -110 / 62% confidence
Both teams rank in bottom half for tempo and defensive rebounding percentages limit second-chance opportunities, projecting a controlled pace.

💰 Best Bet #3 Mount St. Mary’s / Moneyline / -235 / 70% confidence
Strong recent form (3-2 last 5) and edge in turnover-forcing defense align with sharp money despite public lean.

🏀 Mount St. Mary’s vs Howard on 2025-11-29

Game Times
ET: 4:00 PM
CT: 3:00 PM
MT: 2:00 PM
PT: 1:00 PM
AKT: 12:00 PM
HST: 10:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
Mount St. Mary’s 68% / Howard 32%

💰 Money Distribution
Mount St. Mary’s 75% / Howard 25%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened Mount St. Mary’s -4.5; moved to -5.5 early on heavy money toward home team, no clear RLM despite public favoritism.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Mount St. Mary’s | 69% |
| Win % for Howard | 31% |
| Spread Cover % for Mount St. Mary’s (-5.5) | 61% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 47% / Under: 53% |
| Average Total Points | 141.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10.2, 21.4] |

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% EV on Mount St. Mary’s spread; implied prob 52% vs. simulated 61% cover rate, supported by home splits and Howard’s poor road O/D eff (98/108).

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public and money percentages converge on Mount St. Mary’s, matching line movement and simulation outputs for optimal alignment—follow rather than fade. Howard’s recent road struggles (0-4 ATS last 4) and turnover-prone offense (18% TO rate) favor the home side. Overall scoring projects moderate, with unders hitting 6/10 combined recent games amid deliberate tempos.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Mount St. Mary’s — highest probability edge confirmed across metrics and market consensus.

Highlights unavailable.