Nashville Predators vs Dallas Stars

League: NHL | Date: 2025-10-26 07:10 PM EDT | Last Updated: 2025-10-26 05:06 PM EDT

Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [Nashville Predators / Puckline +1.5 / -200 / 62% / Simulation shows 59.8% cover rate with Predators’ defensive structure holding firm against Stars’ offense, supported by Nashville’s recent rest advantage and Dallas injuries like Duchene and Benn; line movement stable despite public lean on Stars.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over 6 / -110 / 51% / Average simulated goals at 5.82 with both teams’ high-danger chances (Stars xGF/60 at 2.8, Preds allowing 2.5); recent trends show overs in 6 of last 10 combined games, factoring pace and power-play edges without key absences derailing scoring.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Dallas Stars / Moneyline / -150 / 58% / 57.6% win probability from sim aligns with market consensus, bolstered by home-ice advantage and Nashville’s injury to Josi weakening their blue line; sharp money following public without reverse movement.]

Matchup: Nashville Predators vs Dallas Stars on 2025-10-26

Game Times

ET: 07:10 PM
CT: 06:10 PM
MT: 05:10 PM
PT: 04:10 PM
AKT: 03:10 PM
HST: 01:10 PM

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Dallas Stars | 57.6% |
| Win % for Nashville Predators | 42.4% |
| Puckline Cover % for Dallas Stars (-1.5) | 40.2% |
| Puckline Cover % for Nashville Predators (+1.5) | 59.8% |
| Over 5.5 Probability | 52.2% |
| Under 5.5 Probability | 47.8% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.82 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (DAL – NSH) | [-4, 6] |

💸 Public Bets

Dallas Stars 68% / Nashville Predators 32%

💰 Money Distribution

Dallas Stars 72% / Nashville Predators 28%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Dallas -140 ML and 6 total, moving slightly to -150 and steady at 6 across books like DraftKings and FanDuel; no significant reverse movement, with puckline holding at -1.5 for Stars around +160 despite public heavy on favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Nashville +1.5 (59.8% sim cover vs. -200 implied 66.7% breakeven, adjusted for Preds’ PK at 82% and Stars’ road fatigue post-back-to-back); no edge on ML due to vig, but +1.8% on over 6 from pace metrics (combined shots/60 at 62).

Top 3 Player Props

• Player Prop #1: Mikko Rantanen / Over 3.5 Shots on Goal / -120 / 72% / Rantanen’s 4.2 SOG average vs. Preds’ weak high-danger defense (allowing 12/60), up from 3.8 in last 5; sim projects 4.1 with power-play usage.
• Player Prop #2: Roman Josi / Under 0.5 Points / +110 / 68% / Josi sidelined with injury, zero production possible; Preds’ offense dips 25% without him per recent form, favoring under based on backup D metrics.
• Player Prop #3: Jake Oettinger / Over 27.5 Saves / -115 / 65% / Oettinger faces Nashville’s 31 SOG/60 pace, averaging 29 saves in home starts; sim total shots 58, supporting over with Stars’ rest edge but Preds’ shot volume.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public and money percentages heavily favor the Stars, aligning with sharp action on their home dominance and Nashville’s key injury to Josi, creating no fade opportunity—following the market makes sense mathematically with sim win probability supporting Dallas at 57.6%. Contextual factors like Dallas’ injuries (Duchene out, Hintz questionable) temper the favorite but don’t flip the edge, while both teams’ xGA/60 around 2.6 suggests moderate scoring potential without extreme overreaction. Overall, the game leans toward a close contest with goals trending slightly over due to offensive efficiencies and power-play matchups.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Dallas Stars — sim and market convergence point to 58% win probability, optimal for ML value without contrarian signals.

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