Navy vs Bucknell

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-07 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-07 11:36 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Navy / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 58% / Navy holds a strong home advantage at Alumni Hall, with superior adjusted efficiency ratings (O: 105, D: 100) compared to Bucknell’s (O: 102, D: 103), and recent form shows Navy covering in 4 of last 6 home games.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 138.5 at -110 / 54% / Both teams play at a moderate tempo (Navy 68, Bucknell 67), with defensive metrics suggesting controlled scoring; Navy allows 68 PPG at home, Bucknell scores 65 on road, trending under in 60% of combined recent matchups.

💰 Best Bet #3 Navy / Moneyline / -190 / 65% / Navy’s 7-3 home record this season and edge in turnover margin (+2.1 per game) provide clear value against a Bucknell team struggling on the road (2-5).

Navy vs Bucknell on 2026-01-07

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

Navy 68% / Bucknell 32%

💰 Money Distribution

Navy 60% / Bucknell 40%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Navy -5 and has held steady at -4.5, with minimal movement despite public leaning toward the favorite, indicating sharp stability.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Navy spread; implied probability from odds (69%) undervalues Navy’s true win probability (65%) adjusted for home edge and Bucknell’s road inefficiencies.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Navy | 65.0% |
| Win % for Bucknell | 35.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Navy | 55.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 140.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-9.8, 19.2] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Greg Summers (Navy) / Over Points / 16.5 at -115 / 72% / Summers averages 18.2 PPG in home games this season, exploiting Bucknell’s weak perimeter defense (38% opponent 3PT allowed); usage rate 28%, likely 17+ shots in favorable matchup.

Player Prop #2: Jack Forrest (Bucknell) / Under Rebounds / 7.5 at -110 / 68% / Forrest grabs 6.1 RPG on road, facing Navy’s stout interior (top-150 defensive rebounding %); Bucknell’s low possession (45%) limits opportunities against Navy’s +4.2 rebound margin.

Player Prop #3: Zach Timberlake (Bucknell) / Over Assists / 4.5 at -120 / 70% / Timberlake dishes 5.8 APG recently, with Navy’s press defense vulnerable (opponents average 12.5 APG); high assist rate (22%) in Patriot League play supports exceeding line.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Navy, aligning with sharp money distribution and stable line movement, making following the favorite the optimal play rather than a fade. Both teams exhibit solid defensive efficiencies, pointing to a lower-scoring affair under the total despite moderate tempos. No major injuries reported, with full rosters expected, enhancing Navy’s home dominance.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Navy — mathematical probabilities and market consensus confirm the Midshipmen’s edge in this matchup.

Highlights unavailable.