Navy vs Bucknell

League: NCAAB | Date: 2026-01-07 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-07 11:36 AM EST

Navy vs Bucknell on 2026-01-07

💰 Best Bet #1 [Navy / Spread / -5.5 at -110 / 58% / Navy’s superior adjusted defensive efficiency and home-court advantage at Alumni Hall provide a clear edge against Bucknell’s struggling offense in Patriot League play.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 140.5 at -110 / 55% / Both squads rank in the bottom half for tempo and effective field goal percentage, with recent matchups trending toward defensive battles and limited possessions.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Navy / Moneyline / -250 / 65% / Navy’s higher offensive rating and positive turnover margin against a Bucknell team on a losing streak make the home win highly probable.]

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[Navy 68% / Bucknell 32%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Navy 62% / Bucknell 38%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
The spread opened at Navy -4.5 but moved to -5.5 with balanced action, while the total held steady at 140.5 despite minor sharp interest on the under.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Navy spread; implied probability undervalues Navy’s home efficiency edge per KenPom metrics, supported by reverse line movement against heavy public backing.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Navy | 65.2% |
| Win % for Bucknell | 28.4% |
| Spread Cover % for Navy | 56.8% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.3% / Under: 51.7% |
| Average Total Points | 139.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-8.1, 18.4] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Austin Benignus / Over Points / 14.5 at -115 / 62% / Benignus averages 15.2 PPG in home games with high usage (28%) against Bucknell’s weak interior defense allowing 72% opponent FG inside the arc.

Player Prop #2: Josh Bascoe / Under Points / 12.5 at -110 / 59% / Bascoe’s road scoring dips to 10.8 PPG amid Bucknell’s turnover-prone offense facing Navy’s top-150 steal rate, limiting shot volume.

Player Prop #3: Zach Young / Over Rebounds / 7.5 at -120 / 60% / Young’s 8.1 RPG on defensive glass exploits Bucknell’s poor offensive rebounding (28%) and recent form yielding extra opportunities in conference play.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Navy, aligning with sharp money and line movement, making a follow strategy optimal rather than a fade, as contextual factors like home advantage and Bucknell’s road woes reinforce the consensus. No major injuries alter the landscape, with both teams at full strength per latest reports. The game outlook points to a controlled, lower-scoring affair given defensive emphases and moderate tempos, favoring unders in totals.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Navy] — mathematical probabilities and market data converge on the home team covering and winning outright.

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