NC State vs Ole Miss

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-12-21 01:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-21 09:46 AM EST

NC State vs Ole Miss on 2025-12-21

💰 Best Bet #1 [NC State / Spread / -6.5 at -110 / 60% / NC State shows strong form with an 8-4 record compared to Ole Miss’s 7-4, and the simulation indicates a 55% cover rate, supported by home-state neutral site advantage in Greensboro.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 146.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams exhibit moderate offensive efficiencies in recent games, with NC State’s defense allowing fewer points on average, aligning with the simulation’s slight edge to under at 52% probability and average total of 150 points.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [NC State / Moneyline / -250 / 68% / The Wolfpack’s superior win probability of 68% from the simulation, bolstered by better ATS trends (NC State 8-3 when favored), makes this a solid straight-up play despite the juice.]

Game Times

ET: 1:00 PM
CT: 12:00 PM
MT: 11:00 AM
PT: 10:00 AM
AKT: 9:00 AM
HST: 7:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
[70% NC State / 30% Ole Miss]

💰 Money Distribution
[60% NC State / 40% Ole Miss]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
The line opened at NC State -6 and has held steady at -6.5, with minimal movement despite moderate public interest, indicating stable sharp action.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on NC State spread / Simulation and recent form metrics show a clear edge, with NC State’s efficiency ratings outperforming Ole Miss in neutral-site scenarios this season.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for NC State | 68% |
| Win % for Ole Miss | 32% |
| Spread Cover % for NC State | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 150 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10, 22] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans heavily toward NC State, aligning with money distribution and sharp indicators, making a follow-the-public approach optimal given the Wolfpack’s stronger recent performance and simulation-backed probabilities. No significant reverse line movement suggests the market is efficient without contrarian value. The game outlook points to a moderate-scoring affair, with both defenses capable of limiting possessions based on current season efficiencies.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with NC State] — the mathematical probability favors the Wolfpack covering and winning outright.

Highlights unavailable.