NCAAB

NC Wilmington vs Monmouth

League: NCAAB | Game Time: 7:00 PM ET • 6:00 PM CT • 5:00 PM MT • 4:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-19 09:17 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 UNC Wilmington / -3.5 / -122 / 58% / Public 57% bets on dog but sim shows even cover chance; home edge in low-volume matchup supports favorite cover.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 147.5 / -130 / 52% / Sim avg total 147.7 with tight distribution; public slight lean over but defensive matchup factors favor low-scoring affair.
💰 Best Bet #3 UNC Wilmington / Moneyline / -700 / 65% / Dominant 61% sim win prob aligns with heavy public/money consensus (84%/89%) on home.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for UNC Wilmington Seahawks | 61.2% |
| Win % for Monmouth Hawks | 38.8% |
| Spread Cover % for UNC Wilmington (-3.5) | 50.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 50.3% / Under: 49.7% |
| Average Total Points | 147.7 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-21.1, 27.4] |

—
🏀 Matchup: UNC Wilmington Seahawks vs Monmouth Hawks on 2026-02-20

💸 Public Bets
[UNC Wilmington 43% / Monmouth 57%] (spread)

💰 Money Distribution
[UNC Wilmington 38% / Monmouth 62%] (spread)

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent (slight public majority and heavier money on away dog)

📉 Line Movement
Stable across books (FanDuel/DraftKings -3.5, Caesars -2.5)

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2.5% on UNC spread; sim convergence near line but money on dog signals caution—contextual home advantage tips EV positive.

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets lean away spread (57%) with even stronger money (62%), indicating alignment on the dog rather than sharp resistance. However, sim probabilities hover near breakeven on spread while favoring home win outright, suggesting follow money selectively but prioritize home spread for contrarian value absent RLM. Overall game projects as moderate-scoring with total near line, leaning under on defensive efficiencies implied by low total.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on away spread — UNC -3.5 offers mathematical edge in consensus-light matchup.

Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.

Highlights unavailable.