NCAAB
Nevada vs 
New Mexico
League: NCAAB | Game Time: 11:00 PM ET • 10:00 PM CT • 9:00 PM MT • 8:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-24 08:41 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 Nevada Wolf Pack / +1.5 / -120 / 55%
Home underdogs cover at a strong clip in close conference matchups; simulation projects 52% cover rate with home-court edge offsetting New Mexico’s slight talent advantage.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / 151.5 / -108 / 53%
Combined offensive efficiencies and defensive metrics point to sub-152 total; money (57%) heavily favors under aligning with public lean (53%) and pace trends.
💰 Best Bet #3 New Mexico Lobos / Moneyline / -115 / 54%
Away team holds narrow edge in win probability (52%) per model; consensus lines reflect value despite public split near even.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Nevada Wolf Pack | 47.6% |
| Win % for New Mexico Lobos | 52.4% |
| Spread Cover % for Nevada Wolf Pack (+1.5) | 52.1% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 49.2% / Under: 50.8% |
| Average Total Points | 151.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-24.2, 21.8] |
🏀 Nevada Wolf Pack vs New Mexico Lobos
💸 Public Bets
Nevada 47% / New Mexico 53%
💰 Money Distribution
Nevada 42% / New Mexico 58%
💹 Market Alignment
Divergent
📉 Line Movement
Stable across books (DraftKings -1.5/100 NM to FanDuel -1/-110); no major steam despite money on road favorite.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2.1% on Nevada +1.5; simulation and home advantage create value against public/money lean on New Mexico.
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Nick Davidson / Over 11.5 Rebounds / -110 / 72% Recent double-doubles (avg 12.2 reb last 5) exploit New Mexico’s weak interior defense allowing 38% opp reb rate.
Player Prop #2: JT Toppin / Over 12.5 Points / -115 / 70% High usage (28%) and efficiency vs Nevada’s frontcourt; avg 14.1 pts in conference play with favorable matchup pace.
Player Prop #3: Donovan Dent / Over 5.5 Assists / -105 / 68% Leads team in playmaking (6.2 APG recently); Nevada allows 14.5 opp assists per game due to turnover-forcing scheme vulnerabilities.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public bets and money distribution both lean New Mexico but with divergence signaling potential sharp resistance on the spread; simulation supports fading the slight public favorite in a projected close contest. Offensive rebounding edges favor unders, with combined efficiencies projecting a grind-it-out affair under the total. Home-field metrics boost Nevada’s cover probability without invalidating New Mexico’s ML edge.
🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on New Mexico — simulation-derived EV favors home spread value in aligned-but-divergent market.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
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