NFL

New England Patriots vs Houston Texans

League: NFL | Date: 2026-01-18 03:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-16 06:01 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 New England Patriots / Spread / -3 at -115 / 52% / Simulation indicates a narrow cover probability with home-field advantage and recent defensive form against Texans’ offense hampered by injuries like Nico Collins out.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 41.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams’ defensive metrics show low-scoring tendencies in playoffs, with average points allowed under 20 recently and weather factors favoring a grind-it-out game.
💰 Best Bet #3 New England Patriots / Moneyline / -170 / 58% / Strong win probability from Monte Carlo sim, supported by QB Drake Maye’s efficiency and Texans’ road struggles.

🏈 Matchup: New England Patriots vs Houston Texans on 2026-01-18

Game Times
ET: 3:00 PM
CT: 2:00 PM
MT: 1:00 PM
PT: 12:00 PM
AKT: 11:00 AM
HST: 9:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
[58% / 42%]

💰 Money Distribution
[76% / 24%]

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Stable at Patriots -3 from open; total dipped from 42.5 to 41.5 despite public on Over.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% on Patriots spread; sim convergence with sharp money outweighs public percentage, creating value despite no major RLM.

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Drake Maye / Over Passing Yards / 250.5 at -110 / 65% / Maye’s 68% completion rate and 7.8 YPA in recent starts exploit Texans’ secondary vulnerabilities without Collins, averaging 280+ vs similar defenses.
Player Prop #2: Rhamondre Stevenson / Over Rushing Yards / 60.5 at -110 / 70% / Stevenson’s 4.8 YPC and 65% snap share in home games align with Texans’ run defense allowing 4.5 YPC on road, boosted by Maye’s play-action usage.
Player Prop #3: Dalton Schultz / Over Receptions / 4.5 at -115 / 60% / With Collins sidelined, Schultz’s target share jumps to 25%, hitting Over in 7 of last 10; Pats’ LBs weak in coverage against TEs, per defensive metrics.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New England Patriots | 58% |
| Win % for Houston Texans | 42% |
| Spread Cover % for New England Patriots | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 42 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10, 18] |

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans toward the Patriots on the spread with 58% of bets, aligning with sharp money at 76%, suggesting no need to fade despite high public exposure. The total shows divergence, with public on Over but money on Under, supported by defensive efficiencies and injury impacts limiting explosive plays. Overall game outlook points to a low-to-mid scoring affair under 42 points, favoring defensive edges in this playoff matchup.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with New England Patriots — sim and market data confirm the highest probability for a home win.

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