New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers

League: NFL | Date: 2026-01-11 08:15 PM EST | Last Updated: 2026-01-11 06:02 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [New England Patriots / Spread / -3.5 at -105 / 55% / Patriots hold a home-field edge in cold weather, with Chargers’ offensive line weakened by injuries to key tackles, supporting a cover based on recent defensive efficiency and simulation metrics.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 46.5 at -110 / 54% / Both teams show defensive strengths in recent games, with average points trending low at 45.5; injuries limit Chargers’ scoring potential against Patriots’ secondary.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [New England Patriots / Moneyline / -198 / 58% / Simulation projects 55% win probability, bolstered by home advantage and Chargers’ quarterback playing through hand injury, creating value despite public favoritism.]

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers on 2026-01-11

Game Times

ET: 8:15 PM
CT: 7:15 PM
MT: 6:15 PM
PT: 5:15 PM
AKT: 4:15 PM
HST: 2:15 PM

💸 Public Bets
[63% / 37%]

💰 Money Distribution
[66% / 34%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -3.5 and held steady despite heavy public action on Patriots, indicating sharp consensus on the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Patriots spread; public and money alignment with simulation win probability creates positive EV, adjusted for Chargers’ injury impacts and defensive metrics from current season.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New England Patriots | 55.0% |
| Win % for Los Angeles Chargers | 45.0% |
| Spread Cover % for New England Patriots | 52.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 45.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-5.0, 12.0] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Rhamondre Stevenson / Over Rushing Yards / 75.5 / -115 / 62% / Stevenson’s 5.2 yards per carry average in recent home games exploits Chargers’ run defense allowing 4.8 YPC; high usage rate with no backfield injuries boosts likelihood.
Player Prop #2: Hunter Henry / Over Receiving Yards / 55.5 / -110 / 58% / Henry’s red-zone efficiency (65% target share) against Chargers’ secondary vulnerable without full health; Patriots’ offense projects 28 points, favoring tight end involvement.
Player Prop #3: Drake Maye / Over Passing Yards / 245.5 / -105 / 60% / Maye’s 68% completion rate at home, combined with Chargers’ pass defense conceding 250+ yards in 60% of recent games; weather favors controlled passing attack.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Patriots, aligning with sharp money and simulation outcomes, making a follow strategy optimal rather than fading. Chargers’ injuries to offensive linemen and quarterback hand issue tilt the matchup toward New England without strong contrarian signals. Overall game scoring outlook leans under, as both defenses rank top-10 in points allowed per game this season, with recent trends showing sub-46 totals in similar conditions.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with New England Patriots] — simulation and market data confirm the highest probability edge on the home favorite.

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