New England Patriots vs New York Giants

League: NFL | Date: 2025-12-01 08:15 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-30 06:06 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 New England Patriots / Spread / -7.5 at -110 / 65% / Patriots’ 9-game win streak, dominant EPA metrics, and Giants’ poor defensive success rate support strong cover probability, aligned with 64.8% sim cover rate
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 48.5 at -110 / 58% / Both teams’ recent games trending high-scoring (Pats avg 32 PPG last 3, Giants 35.7 PPG), pace favors explosion despite OL injuries
💰 Best Bet #3 New England Patriots / Moneyline / -350 / 76% / Simulation projects 76.4% win rate backed by superior turnover margin, red-zone efficiency, and home-field edge

🏈 Matchup: New England Patriots vs New York Giants on 2025-12-01

Game Times
ET: 08:15 PM
CT: 07:15 PM
MT: 06:15 PM
PT: 05:15 PM
AKT: 04:15 PM
HST: 02:15 PM

💸 Public Bets
Patriots 72% / Giants 28%

💰 Money Distribution
Patriots 68% / Giants 32%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Spread steady at Patriots -7.5; total climbed from 46.5 to 48.5 amid betting volume

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on Patriots spread (RLM neutral, sim convergence, Giants 2-10 SU form vs Pats’ 10-2)

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New England Patriots | 76.4% |
| Win % for New York Giants | 23.6% |
| Spread Cover % for New England Patriots | 64.8% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 58.2% / Under: 41.8% |
| Average Total Points | 49.3 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [4.2, 28.1] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Drake Maye / Over 245.5 Pass Yards / -110 / 72% / Pats’ pass-heavy scheme vs Giants’ weak secondary (allow 280+ yds/game recently), Maye’s 68% CPOE supports blowout potential
Player Prop #2: Rhamondre Stevenson / Over 72.5 Rush Yards / -115 / 68% / Giants rank bottom-5 in rush defense EPA, Stevenson’s 5.2 YPC usage in wins aligns with sim high total
Player Prop #3: Wan’Dale Robinson / Under 48.5 Rec Yards / -110 / 70% / Pats’ top-ranked pass defense limits slot WRs (under in 8/10), Robinson’s low target share in losses

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily favors Patriots aligning with money distribution and sharp consensus, as line holds firm despite volume—optimal to follow rather than fade. Giants’ recent wins inflated scoring but against weaker foes; Pats’ defensive havoc rate projects lower Giants output. Game outlook leans high-scoring given Pats’ red-zone TD% and total movement upward.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Patriots — simulation and metrics confirm 76% win probability with positive EV edge.

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