New Jersey Devils vs Detroit Red Wings

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-24 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-24 07:28 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Detroit Red Wings / +1.5 / +110 / 62% / Red Wings cover in simulations with close margin; Devils missing key players like Jack Hughes limits blowout potential despite home edge]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 5.5 at -128 / 55% / Both teams’ recent games show moderate scoring; average simulated goals at 6.2 exceed line, supported by offensive metrics like xGF per 60]
💰 Best Bet #3 [New Jersey Devils / Moneyline / -142 / 58% / Devils hold edge in win probability from form and home-ice; injuries to Red Wings goalie depth but Devils’ core intact for victory]

New Jersey Devils vs Detroit Red Wings on 2025-11-24

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[New Jersey Devils 58% / Detroit Red Wings 42%]

💰 Money Distribution

[New Jersey Devils 52% / Detroit Red Wings 48%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened Devils -1.5 at -110, moved to -105 with slight public lean on favorite; total steady at 5.5 despite some over action.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on Wings +1.5; reverse line hints at sharp money on underdog, combined with Devils’ injury impacts creating value against implied 45% cover probability]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New Jersey Devils | 55.0% |
| Win % for Detroit Red Wings | 45.0% |
| Spread Cover % for New Jersey Devils | 48.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52.0% / Under: 48.0% |
| Average Total Goals | 6.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.0, 3.0] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Nico Hischier / Over 0.5 Points / -120 / 68% / Hischier centers top line with Meier and Bratt; recent xGF/60 at 2.8 supports scoring chance against Red Wings’ average PK, hit in 7 of last 10 games
Player Prop #2: Dylan Larkin / Over 3.5 Shots on Goal / +105 / 62% / Larkin leads Wings in shots per game (3.8 avg current season); Devils allow 32 SOG/game to centers, over hit in 6 of 9 vs similar defenses
Player Prop #3: Jesper Bratt / Over 0.5 Points / -115 / 65% / Bratt’s high-danger involvement yields 0.7 points/game; Red Wings’ defensive lapses (high-danger xGA/60 at 1.2) favor multi-point potential on power play

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans Devils but money distribution shows balance, aligning with sharp action on Red Wings spread amid injury concerns like Jack Hughes out for Devils. Follow the public on moneyline for Devils’ win probability, but fade on spread due to EV from close sim margins and RLM. Game outlook tilts moderately high-scoring with both offenses averaging 3.1 goals/game recently, though goalie starts (Markstrom vs. Talbot) cap extremes.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with New Jersey Devils] — mathematical edge favors home win probability at 55% with positive EV on ML.

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