New Jersey Devils vs Philadelphia Flyers

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-29 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-29 12:12 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Devils / Puckline / -1.5 at +155 / 55% / RLM shows line tightening to -1.5 despite 68% public on Devils, supported by home-ice xGF advantage and sim cover proximity
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 6.0 at -110 / 52% / Sim favors Under at 51% but NHL logic flips to Over on pace and recent trends averaging 5.9 goals
💰 Best Bet #3 Devils / Moneyline / -145 / 60% / 58% sim win probability aligns with sharp money distribution and Devils’ strong home record

🏒 Matchup: New Jersey Devils vs Philadelphia Flyers on 2025-11-29

Game Times
ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New Jersey Devils | 58% |
| Win % for Philadelphia Flyers | 42% |
| Spread Cover % for New Jersey Devils (-1.5) | 48% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 49% / Under: 51% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.9 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-1.2, +2.1] |

💸 Public Bets
Devils 68% / Flyers 32%

💰 Money Distribution
Devils 52% / Flyers 48%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Line opened Devils -1.4/-140, moved to -1.5/+155 on Devils despite public lean, indicating sharp action on home puckline.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on Devils puckline / Simulation convergence with RLM and home xGF advantage outweighs public favoritism.

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily favors Devils at 68% but money distribution is closer at 52%, creating divergence that signals potential sharp action on the puckline amid line movement against the public. Devils’ home strength and Flyers’ back-to-back struggles support fading excessive public sentiment on the ML while targeting value on spread. Game projects as moderate-scoring with 5.9 average goals, favoring flipped Over logic despite defensive metrics.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Flyers puckline — Devils -1.5 holds +EV from RLM, sim alignment, and contextual home edge.

Highlights unavailable.