New Orleans Pelicans vs Charlotte Hornets

League: NBA | Date: 2025-11-04 08:10 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-04 05:01 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [New Orleans Pelicans / Spread / -2.5 at -110 / 58% / Simulation cover probability of 52.1% exceeds implied odds, bolstered by home advantage and sharp money divergence favoring the Pelicans despite public lean toward Charlotte.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 230.5 at -110 / 55% / Projected average total of 233.5 points surpasses the line, driven by both teams’ mid-tempo pace and defensive vulnerabilities in recent matchups.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [New Orleans Pelicans / Moneyline / -138 / 60% / Win probability of 55.2% aligns with line movement stability and contextual edges like potential Zion availability boosting offensive efficiency.]

New Orleans Pelicans vs Charlotte Hornets on 2025-11-04

Game Times

ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

New Orleans Pelicans 42% / Charlotte Hornets 58%

💰 Money Distribution

New Orleans Pelicans 56% / Charlotte Hornets 44%

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

The spread opened at Pelicans -2.5 but has steadied at -1.5 across sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings, with minimal movement despite public leaning toward the underdog Hornets; total holds firm at 230.5 since open.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+2.8% on Pelicans -2.5 spread, driven by simulation win/cover probabilities exceeding implied odds (55% true vs. 52% implied) and sharp money indicators from divergent public/money splits favoring home side value.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New Orleans Pelicans | 55.2% |
| Win % for Charlotte Hornets | 44.8% |
| Spread Cover % for New Orleans Pelicans | 52.1% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 51.3% / Under: 48.7% |
| Average Total Points | 233.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-23.4, 26.1] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Zion Williamson / Over Points / 24.5 at -110 / 72% / Zion’s high usage rate (32%) and scoring efficiency against Charlotte’s weak interior defense support exceeding this line, especially if he plays through questionable hamstring status with recent averages of 26.8 points per game.
Player Prop #2: Miles Bridges / Over Points / 21.5 at -115 / 68% / Bridges has cleared 21.5 in 7 of his last 10 games with 28% usage, exploiting Pelicans’ perimeter vulnerabilities amid Hornets’ depleted roster.
Player Prop #3: Trey Murphy III / Over 3-Pointers Made / 3.5 at -105 / 65% / Murphy’s 38% three-point shooting on volume (6.2 attempts per game) aligns with Charlotte’s poor perimeter defense, hitting over in 6 of last 8 home games.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Hornets as underdogs, but divergent money distribution points to sharp action on the Pelicans, creating value on the home side where simulation metrics confirm a modest edge. Fading the public is optimal here due to the mathematical convergence of cover probabilities and line stability, avoiding overreaction to Charlotte’s recent form. Overall game scoring outlook leans toward a moderate-paced affair with potential for overage, given both teams’ offensive ratings above league average but tempered by key injury questions like Zion and LaMelo.

🔮 Recommended Play

Fade the public on Charlotte Hornets — Pelicans hold the best mathematical probability with superior EV from sharp alignment and simulation-backed home dominance.

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