New Orleans Pelicans vs Houston Rockets

League: NBA | Date: 2025-12-18 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-18 06:34 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Houston Rockets / Spread / -4.5 at -110 / 55% / Rockets hold edge with key Pelicans absences like Murray out; simulation shows 52% cover rate adjusted for injuries and home defense vulnerabilities.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 220.5 at -110 / 53% / Both teams rank mid-pack in pace and efficiency; recent trends and defensive metrics favor lower scoring, with sim projecting 218 average total.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Houston Rockets / Moneyline / -180 / 55% / Stronger overall form and road performance against depleted Pelicans lineup gives Rockets clear win probability per sim and market data.]

New Orleans Pelicans vs Houston Rockets on 2025-12-18

Game Times

ET: 08:00 PM
CT: 07:00 PM
MT: 06:00 PM
PT: 05:00 PM
AKT: 04:00 PM
HST: 02:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[Pelicans 58% / Rockets 42%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Pelicans 45% / Rockets 55%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement
[Line opened at -3.5 for Houston but moved to -4.5 amid sharp action on the Rockets despite public leaning home team.]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Rockets spread; simulation and injury-adjusted metrics show value against implied odds, with RLM confirming professional support.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New Orleans Pelicans | 45% |
| Win % for Houston Rockets | 55% |
| Spread Cover % for New Orleans Pelicans (+4.5) | 48% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 47% / Under: 53% |
| Average Total Points | 218 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-8, +2] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Amen Thompson / Over Rebounds + Assists / 11.5 at -132 / 60% / Thompson’s increased role with VanVleet out boosts usage; averages 12.5 RA in last 5 starts, facing Pelicans’ weak perimeter defense allowing high assists.
Player Prop #2: Alperen Sengun / Over Points + Assists / 22.5 at -115 / 58% / Sengun dominates inside vs. Pelicans’ thin frontcourt; 24.2 PA average recently, with matchup favoring scoring efficiency and playmaking.
Player Prop #3: Zion Williamson / Under Points / 24.5 at -110 / 55% / Coming off injury management, Zion’s minutes capped; Pelicans’ balanced attack reduces usage, projecting under based on defensive metrics from Rockets’ bigs.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public heavily backs the home Pelicans amid their recent form, but money flows to Houston, signaling sharp divergence and potential value in fading the crowd. Injuries like Murray’s absence weaken New Orleans’ backcourt, aligning with sim outcomes favoring the Rockets. Overall scoring leans under due to both teams’ mid-tier offensive ratings and defensive rebounding strengths, projecting a grind-it-out affair below the total.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Fade the public on Pelicans / Follow sharp money with Rockets] — mathematical probabilities and EV support Houston across spread and moneyline for the highest win outlook.

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