New Orleans Pelicans vs Memphis Grizzlies

League: NBA | Date: 2025-11-26 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-26 11:44 AM EST

🏀 New Orleans Pelicans vs Memphis Grizzlies on 2025-11-26

💰 Best Bet #1 [Memphis Grizzlies / Spread / -2.5 at -110 / 55% / Grizzlies show stronger recent form and fewer key injuries, covering in 6 of last 10 road games against sub-.400 teams; public heavy on them but line stable indicates value]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 215.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams rank bottom-10 in pace and offensive rating this season, with injuries limiting scoring; recent matchups average 208 points]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Memphis Grizzlies / Moneyline / -130 / 55% / Grizzlies’ defensive efficiency edges Pelicans, plus home underdogs like New Orleans cover only 40% vs winning teams]

Game Times

ET: 08:00 PM
CT: 07:00 PM
MT: 06:00 PM
PT: 05:00 PM
AKT: 04:00 PM
HST: 03:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[42% / 58%]

💰 Money Distribution
[45% / 55%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Grizzlies -3 and moved to -2.5 with balanced action, no significant RLM despite public lean.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Grizzlies spread; injuries to Pelicans’ core (Murray, Poole out) boost Grizzlies’ true win prob to 55% vs implied 54% at -130 ML]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New Orleans Pelicans | 45.0% |
| Win % for Memphis Grizzlies | 55.0% |
| Spread Cover % for New Orleans Pelicans | 52.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.0% / Under: 52.0% |
| Average Total Points | 214.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12.0, 10.0] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Desmond Bane / Over Points / 22.5 at -115 / 65% / Bane averages 24.2 PPG in last 10, exploiting Pelicans’ weak perimeter D (allows 38% 3PT); usage up 5% without Morant

Player Prop #2: Jaren Jackson Jr. / Over Rebounds / 10.5 at -110 / 60% / Jackson grabs 11.8 RPG vs teams missing frontcourt depth like injured Pelicans; Grizzlies rebound 52% on road

Player Prop #3: CJ McCollum / Over Assists / 5.5 at -112 / 58% / McCollum dishes 6.1 APG with Ingram out, facing Grizzlies’ aggressive traps that force 15% TO rate; recent form 7+ in 4 of 5

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans Grizzlies at 58%, aligning with money distribution and stable lines, suggesting no sharp resistance—following the market is optimal here as EV confirms value without RLM signals. Both squads hampered by injuries (Pelicans missing Murray/Poole, Grizzlies without Morant/Clarke), pointing to a grind-it-out affair under the total. Overall game scoring outlook remains low, with combined ORtg under 105 and defensive metrics favoring unders in 70% of similar matchups.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Memphis Grizzlies — mathematical probability favors their edge in efficiency and health, yielding +EV across spread and ML.

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