New Orleans Pelicans vs Minnesota Timberwolves

League: NBA | Date: 2025-12-04 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-04 07:45 AM EST

New Orleans Pelicans vs Minnesota Timberwolves on 2025-12-04

💰 Best Bet #1 Minnesota Timberwolves / -12.5 / -110 / 62% / Timberwolves dominate depleted Pelicans roster with multiple key outs; sim shows strong cover probability amid Pelicans’ league-worst defense.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 230.5 at -110 / 58% / Pelicans missing stars limit scoring despite poor D; Wolves efficient but controlled pace favors lower total vs. recent trends.

💰 Best Bet #3 Minnesota Timberwolves / Moneyline / -750 / 75% / Overwhelming edge with Pelicans at 3-19 record and injuries; market consensus aligns with true prob ~78%.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New Orleans Pelicans | 20% |
| Win % for Minnesota Timberwolves | 78% |
| Spread Cover % for New Orleans Pelicans +12.5 | 35% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 45% / Under: 55% |
| Average Total Points | 220 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (Timberwolves – Pelicans) | [-5, 35] |

Game Times

ET: 08:00 PM
CT: 07:00 PM
MT: 06:00 PM
PT: 05:00 PM
AKT: 04:00 PM
HST: 02:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Pelicans 20% / Timberwolves 80%

💰 Money Distribution
Pelicans 10% / Timberwolves 90%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened Timberwolves -11, moved to -13 amid heavy action on favorite despite public support.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.5% on Timberwolves spread; injuries and form create value despite public fade resistance.

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public heavily on Timberwolves aligns with sharp money and line movement toward heavier favorite, supported by Pelicans’ injury crisis (Zion, Murray, Poole, Jones out) and 3-19 record. Math favors following public here as EV positive on Wolves side. Game projects low-scoring due to Pelicans’ offensive limitations against Wolves’ top defense.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Timberwolves — highest probability with converging metrics and sim outcomes.

Highlights unavailable.