NBA
New Orleans Pelicans vs 
Philadelphia 76ers
League: NBA | Game Time: 7:00 PM ET • 6:00 PM CT • 5:00 PM MT • 4:00 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-02-21 05:03 PM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 Pelicans / Spread / +3.5 at -106 / 68% / Sim shows 67.2% cover rate even at +4.5; PHI heavy injuries (Embiid, PG out) and NOP home edge create value vs public-heavy favorite.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 235.5 at -110 / 60% / Avg sim total 227.0 with 58.3% Under probability; recent NOP form undershoots (avg margin -1.6, totals ~225) amid key absences slowing pace.
💰 Best Bet #3 Pelicans / Moneyline / +138 / 55% / 54.4% win probability exceeds 42% implied odds; fade aligned public/money (65%/70% on PHI) with NOP superior sim outlook and PHI star absences.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New Orleans Pelicans | 54.4% |
| Win % for Philadelphia 76ers | 45.6% |
| Spread Cover % for New Orleans Pelicans (+4.5) | 67.2% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 41.7% / Under: 58.3% |
| Average Total Points | 227.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-26.0, 28.6] |
🏀 New Orleans Pelicans vs Philadelphia 76ers
💸 Public Bets
Pelicans 35% / 76ers 65% (ML); 47% / 53% (spread)
💰 Money Distribution
Pelicans 30% / 76ers 70% (ML); 42% / 58% (spread)
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned (public and money favor 76ers)
📉 Line Movement
Stable at PHI -3.5 to -4 across books (FanDuel/MyBookie/Fanatics)
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on Pelicans +3.5; sim cover exceeds implied prob (67% at +4.5), PHI injuries (Embiid/PG out, roster-limited) vs NOP home resilience.
Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster/injury verification and lack of current prop odds data.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment and sharp money align heavily on Philadelphia (65% bets/70% money ML), but simulation and injury context (Embiid/PG out for PHI, multiple NOP absences but home advantage) support fading toward Pelicans cover/win. Defensive metrics from recent form (NOP avg 114.3 allowed, PHI vulnerable without stars) favor low-scoring affair under 235.5. Overall, contrarian value emerges from RLM stability despite public pile-on.
🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on 76ers — Pelicans +3.5 holds strongest EV from sim convergence and matchup edges.
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
Highlights unavailable.