New Orleans Pelicans vs Portland Trail Blazers

League: NBA | Date: 2025-11-12 08:10 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-12 06:27 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Portland Trail Blazers / Spread / -8.5 at -108 / 58% / Portland’s healthier lineup exploits New Orleans’ key absences like Zion Williamson and Dejounte Murray, with simulation showing strong cover probability amid Pelicans’ depleted offense.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 232.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams hampered by injuries reduce pace and efficiency; recent games and simulation average 228 points, favoring a defensive battle in New Orleans.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Portland Trail Blazers / Moneyline / -340 / 72.5% / Blazers’ depth and active stars like Deni Avdija and Jrue Holiday overwhelm the injury-riddled Pelicans, aligning with market consensus and simulation win rate.]

🏀 Matchup: New Orleans Pelicans vs Portland Trail Blazers on 2025-11-12

Game Times

ET: 08:10 PM
CT: 07:10 PM
MT: 06:10 PM
PT: 05:10 PM
AKT: 04:10 PM
HST: 02:10 PM

💸 Public Bets

[35% / 65%]

💰 Money Distribution

[25% / 75%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Portland -7.5 and steadied at -8 across books like DraftKings and FanDuel, with minimal shift despite public leaning toward the favorite; no significant reverse movement noted.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+4.2% on Portland spread] — Injuries heavily favor Blazers, with simulation and market data converging on a 58% cover rate exceeding implied odds probability.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Portland Trail Blazers | 72.5% |
| Win % for New Orleans Pelicans | 27.5% |
| Spread Cover % for Portland Trail Blazers | 58% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 228 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12, 28] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Trey Murphy III / Over Points / 21.5 at -120 / 65% / Murphy’s increased usage (25+ FGA recently) against Portland’s average perimeter defense projects 22+ points, supported by Pelicans’ thin scoring options.
Player Prop #2: Deni Avdija / Over Points / 24.5 at -122 / 62% / Avdija’s efficiency (true shooting 58%) and rebounding edge vs. depleted Pelicans frontcourt boost scoring volume to 25+, per on/off metrics.
Player Prop #3: Shaedon Sharpe / Over Points / 19.5 at -128 / 60% / Sharpe thrives in transition (22 PPG last 5), exploiting New Orleans’ injury-weakened backcourt for high-usage opportunities.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Trail Blazers at 65%, aligning with sharp money at 75% due to the Pelicans’ extensive injuries sidelining stars like Zion Williamson, Dejounte Murray, and Jordan Poole, creating clear value on Portland without needing a fade. Mathematical models confirm this consensus, with no overvaluation from hype. Overall game scoring trends low, as both teams’ defensive ratings (Pelicans 110+ allowed recently) and simulation point to under, tempered by reduced offensive firepower.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Portland Trail Blazers] — Mathematical probability strongly supports the favorite amid injury disparities and aligned market action.

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