New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons

League: NFL | Date: 2025-11-30 01:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-30 09:50 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 New York Jets / +2.5 / -110 / 55%
Jets show strong ATS value as home underdogs (4-1 last 5), covering 55.2% in sims amid Falcons’ 1-5 record as favorites this season.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 39.5 at -110 / 52%
Recent games trend low (Jets avg 40 total points last 3, Falcons mixed but defensive edges), sim Under at 51.9% with avg score 42.5 but matchup favors controlled pace.

💰 Best Bet #3 Atlanta Falcons / Moneyline / -142 / 58%
Falcons hold 57.7% win probability per sim, backed by ESPN unanimous picks despite Cousins start.

🏈 New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons on 2025-11-30

Game Times
ET: 1:00 PM
CT: 12:00 PM
MT: 11:00 AM
PT: 10:00 AM
AKT: 9:00 AM
HST: 7:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
Atlanta Falcons 62% / New York Jets 38%

💰 Money Distribution
Atlanta Falcons 58% / New York Jets 42%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened Falcons -1.5, moved to -2.5/-3 despite Jets sharp interest; indicates some pro action on home dog.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4% EV on Jets spread (RLM + sim cover rate >55%, Falcons poor 1-5 ATS as favs); slight +2% on Under given defensive metrics and recent totals.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New York Jets | 42.3% |
| Win % for Atlanta Falcons | 57.7% |
| Spread Cover % for New York Jets | 55.2% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.1% / Under: 51.9% |
| Average Total Points | 42.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-24.8, 24.1] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Breece Hall / Over 65.5 Rushing Yards / -115 / 72%
Hall averages strong usage in Jets wins (recent 100+ vs GB), Falcons allow 4.8 ypc to RBs; matchup favors ground game with Fields mobility.

Player Prop #2: Bijan Robinson / Over 72.5 Rushing Yards / -120 / 68%
Robinson key in Falcons offense despite losses (consistent 70+ snaps), Jets middling run D (4.2 ypc allowed recently).

Player Prop #3: Kirk Cousins / Under 235.5 Passing Yards / -110 / 65%
Cousins limited in road struggles (recent

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