New York Knicks vs Toronto Raptors

League: NBA | Date: 2025-11-30 06:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-30 05:41 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Knicks / Spread / -7.5 at -110 / 52% / Knicks strong home cover rate (8-1 ATS at MSG), Raptors on B2B after OT, injuries to Barrett/Poeltl weaken TOR frontcourt vs Knicks’ length.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 226.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams top-10 defense recently, Knicks games avg 220 pts last 5 home, Raptors poor 3PT shooting (28th) limits scoring.
💰 Best Bet #3 Knicks / Moneyline / -320 / 68% / Superior record at home, Raptors missing key pieces, sim projects dominant Knicks edge.

New York Knicks vs Toronto Raptors on 2025-11-30

Game Times
ET: 6:00 PM
CT: 5:00 PM
MT: 4:00 PM
PT: 3:00 PM
AKT: 2:00 PM
HST: 12:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Knicks 72% / Raptors 28%

💰 Money Distribution
Knicks 65% / Raptors 35%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent (public heavy on Knicks ML, spread near even at 52%)

📉 Line Movement
Stable at Knicks -7.5 after opening around -6.5 to -7; total steady near 226.5 despite volume

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% EV on Knicks spread (52% cover vs. -110 implied 52.4%); under total +2.5% edge from pace/defense matchup

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New York Knicks | 68% |
| Win % for Toronto Raptors | 32% |
| Spread Cover % for New York Knicks (-7.5) | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 224.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-4.2, 21.1] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Jalen Brunson / Over 28.5 Points / 28.5 at -110 / 72% / Leads Knicks in usage (32%), averages 30+ PPG home, Raptors weak guard D (118 pts allowed).
Player Prop #2: Sandro Mamukelashvili / Over 15.5 Points + Rebounds / 15.5 at -118 / 68% / Poeltl out boosts minutes to 25+, TOR rebounding vacuum vs Knicks interior.
Player Prop #3: Mikal Bridges / Over 4.5 Assists / 4.5 at -112 / 65% / OG out elevates playmaking (5.2 APG last 5), Raptors allow 26 assists/game to wings.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public leans heavy Knicks but money slightly softer, with RLM from -5.5 to -7.5 signaling sharp action on NYK despite public fade potential. Follow the Knicks spread as sim and injuries (TOR missing Barrett/Poeltl, NYK sans OG but depth holds) align for home dominance. Game projects low-scoring with elite defenses (both top-8 rating) and Raptors fatigue capping totals under.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Knicks — sim win/cover probs and market convergence confirm highest EV.

Highlights unavailable.