MLB
New York Mets vs 
New York Yankees
League: MLB | Game Time: 7:15 PM ET • 6:15 PM CT • 5:15 PM MT • 4:15 PM PT | Last Updated: 2026-05-16 05:08 PM EDT
💰 Best Bet #1 New York Yankees / Spread / -1.5 at 138 / 64% / Yankees own the edge in recent offensive output and bullpen stability against a Mets club missing multiple key bats
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 8.5 at -115 / 59% / Both lineups feature multiple injured regulars and recent game totals show regression toward lower scoring outputs
💰 Best Bet #3 New York Yankees / Moneyline / -122 / 61% / Sharp money and public betting align on Yankees with positive EV driven by superior recent home/road splits and injury edge
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New York Mets | 42% |
| Win % for New York Yankees | 58% |
| Spread Cover % for New York Yankees | 54% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 46% / Under: 54% |
| Average Total Runs | 7.9 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-3, 5] |
💸 Public Bets
Yankees 59% / Mets 41%
💰 Money Distribution
Yankees 63% / Mets 37%
💹 Market Alignment
Aligned
📉 Line Movement
Yankees -1.5 held steady despite 58% public on the spread side
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
Yankees ML carries +3.8% EV; Under 8.5 carries +2.1% EV
Top 3 Player Props
– Player Prop #1: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases at -110 / 62% / Strong recent power rate and Mets pitching staff missing key arms
– Player Prop #2: Juan Soto Over 0.5 hits at -130 / 61% / High contact rate against right-handed pitching and favorable platoon matchup
– Player Prop #3: Pete Alonso Under 1.5 total bases at -105 / 58% / Mets offense limited by multiple high-profile injuries reducing protection
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public and sharp money converge on the Yankees across spread and moneyline, producing a clear mathematical edge on the road favorite. The total leans Under due to elevated injury counts on both sides reducing run expectancy. Recent form and lineup composition support following the market on New York rather than fading.
🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with New York Yankees
Disclaimer: This prediction is for entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves risk.
🔍 Gemini Deep Look Analysis
Strongest Bet
– Yankees -1.5 — Superior offensive output and bullpen stability give the Yankees a massive edge against a Mets lineup missing multiple key bats.
– Aaron Judge Over