New York Rangers vs Dallas Stars

League: NHL | Date: 2025-12-02 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-12-02 08:29 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 New York Rangers +1.5 at -190 / 68% / Rangers cover in 75% of sims with strong home defense limiting Stars’ streak; value against road favorite.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over 6.0 at -110 / 55% / Flipped from sim under edge due to NHL historical performance; recent games high-scoring for both despite defensive metrics.

💰 Best Bet #3 Dallas Stars Moneyline at -131 / 58% / Stars superior form (17-5-4, 4-win streak) and edge in xGF vs Rangers’ average home record.

New York Rangers vs Dallas Stars on 2025-12-02

Game Times
ET: 07:00 PM
CT: 06:00 PM
MT: 05:00 PM
PT: 04:00 PM
AKT: 03:00 PM
HST: 01:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Dallas Stars 62% / New York Rangers 38%

💰 Money Distribution
Dallas Stars 58% / New York Rangers 42%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Stars ML moved from -120 to -131 despite heavy public action, indicating sharp money on Dallas; puck line steady at Rangers +1.5 -190, total 6.0 stable.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on Rangers +1.5 (sim cover 75% vs implied 65.5%); Stars ML +2.1% edge from form convergence.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New York Rangers | 42.0% |
| Win % for Dallas Stars | 52.0% |
| Spread Cover % for New York Rangers (+1.5) | 75.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.0% / Under: 52.0% |
| Average Total Goals | 6.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin (Stars – Rangers) | [-2.0, 3.0] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Artemi Panarin Over 3.5 Shots on Goal at -120 / 72% / Panarin averages 4.1 SOG/game current season, Rangers power play usage high vs Stars PK weaknesses.
Player Prop #2: Jason Robertson Over 0.5 Points at +110 / 65% / Robertson hot (1-1-2 recent), Stars top line dominates Rangers defense allowing 3.2 xGA/60.
Player Prop #3: Igor Shesterkin Over 27.5 Saves at -115 / 70% / Expected 30+ shots faced with Stars 32.5 SA/60 road, Shesterkin .920 SV% home.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public leans Stars but money slightly softer, with RLM supporting Dallas amid divergent action; math favors Rangers +1.5 cover over ML due to sim convergence and home resilience. Game projects moderate scoring (avg 6 goals) with Stars offense vs Rangers goaltending tilting under before flip. Fade public ML on Stars for spread value.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Dallas Stars — Rangers +1.5 offers superior EV from defensive matchup and sim probabilities.

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